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Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-09 Arnaud Dufays , Aristide Houndetoungan , Alain Coën

In the realm of large-scale spatiotemporal data, abrupt changes are commonly occurring across both spatial and temporal domains. This study aims to address the concurrent challenges of detecting change points and identifying spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Zerui Zhang , Xin Wang , Xin Zhang , Jing Zhang

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-16 David S. Matteson , Nicholas A. James

In this paper, we study a novel approach for the estimation of quantiles when facing potential right censoring of the responses. Contrary to the existing literature on the subject, the adopted strategy of this paper is to tackle censoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Mickaël De Backer , Anouar El Ghouch , Ingrid Van Keilegom

The dynamic nature of many real-world systems can lead to temporal outcome model shifts, causing a deterioration in model accuracy and reliability over time. This requires change-point detection on the outcome models to guide model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Zhuofan Dong , Yiwen Huang , Yan Dong , Mengying Yan , Ziye Tian , Chuan Hong , Doudou Zhou , Molei Liu

We consider the problem of detecting multiple changepoints in large data sets. Our focus is on applications where the number of changepoints will increase as we collect more data: for example in genetics as we analyse larger regions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 R. Killick , P. Fearnhead , I. A. Eckley

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of l1 penalized maximum likelihood estimation of signals with piece-wise constant mean values and/or variances. The focus is on segmentation of a non-stationary time series with respect to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-22 Cristian R. Rojas , Bo Wahlberg

Change point detection algorithms have numerous applications in fields of scientific and economic importance. We consider the problem of change point detection on compositional multivariate data (each sample is a probability mass function),…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-16 Prabuchandran K. J. , Nitin Singh , Pankaj Dayama , Vinayaka Pandit

In contrast to the usual procedure of estimating the distribution of a time series and then obtaining the quantile from the distribution, we develop a compensatory model to improve the quantile estimation under a given distribution…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-15 Shuzhen Yang

We assume a nonparametric regression model where the signal is given by the sum of a piecewise constant function and a smooth function. To detect the change-points and estimate the regression functions, we propose PCpluS, a combination of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Florian Pein , Rajen D. Shah

We study tools for inference conditioned on model selection events that are defined by the generalized lasso regularization path. The generalized lasso estimate is given by the solution of a penalized least squares regression problem, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-14 Sangwon Hyun , Max G'Sell , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The paper deals with generalized functional regression. The aim is to estimate the influence of covariates on observations, drawn from an exponential distribution. The link considered has a semiparametric expression: if we are interested in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Irène Gannaz

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Zifeng Zhao , Ting Fung Ma , Wai Leong Ng , Chun Yip Yau

High-dimensional changepoint inference that adapts to various change patterns has received much attention recently. We propose a simple, fast yet effective approach for adaptive changepoint testing. The key observation is that two…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-03 Guanghui Wang , Long Feng

The ordinary least squares estimate in linear regression is sensitive to the influence of errors with large variance, which reduces its robustness, especially when dealing with heavy-tailed errors or outliers frequently encountered in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Mengjiao Shi , Yunhai Xiao

In high-dimensional model selection problems, penalized simple least-square approaches have been extensively used. This paper addresses the question of both robustness and efficiency of penalized model selection methods, and proposes a…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-06 Jelena Bradic , Jianqing Fan , Weiwei Wang

The paper considers a linear regression model in high-dimension for which the predictive variables can change the influence on the response variable at unknown times (called change-points). Moreover, the particular case of the heavy-tailed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-03 Gabriela Ciuperca

Accurately detecting multiple change-points is critical for various applications, but determining the optimal number of change-points remains a challenge. Existing approaches based on information criteria attempt to balance goodness-of-fit…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Hui Chen , Yinxu Jia , Guanghui Wang , Changliang Zou

We introduce a framework for online changepoint detection and simultaneous model learning which is applicable to highly parametrized models, such as deep neural networks. It is based on detecting changepoints across time by sequentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Michalis K. Titsias , Jakub Sygnowski , Yutian Chen