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We investigate the quasi-limiting behaviour of bisexual subcritical Galton-Watson branching processes. While classical subcritical Galton-Watson processes have been extensively analyzed, bisexual Galton-Watson branching processes present…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-06 Coralie Fritsch , Denis Villemonais , Nicolás Zalduendo

Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-19 Soudeep Deb

We consider the time evolution of the lattice subcritical Galton-Watson model with immigration. We prove Carleman type estimation for the cumulants in the simple case (binary splitting) and show the existence of a steady state. We also…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-21 Elena Chernousova , Yaqin Feng , Stanislav Molchanov , Joseph Whitmeyer

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 James Hensman , Nicolo Fusi , Neil D. Lawrence

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Metod Jazbec , Eliot Wong-Toi , Guoxuan Xia , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick , Stephan Mandt

We are interested in modeling Darwinian evolution resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. The population is modeled as a stochastic point process whose generator captures…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Benjamin Jourdain , Sylvie Méléard , Wojbor Woyczynski

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-13 Wen-Hsi Yang , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle

We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-14 Théo Leblanc

We study two models of population with migration. We assume that we are given infinitely many islands with the same number r of resources, each individual consuming one unit of resources. On an island lives an individual whose genealogy is…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-27 Raoul Normand

In this kind of model, the main characteristic that determines population viability in the long term is the stochastic growth rate (SGR) denoted $\lambda_S$. When $\lambda_S$ is larger than one, the population grows exponentially with…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-07 Luis Sanz

We study an extension of the so-called defective Galton-Watson processes obtained by allowing the offspring distribution to change over the generations. Thus, in these processes, the individuals reproduce independently of the others and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Götz Kersting , Carmen Minuesa

We consider the Ising model on a supercritical Galton-Watson tree $\mathbf{T}_n$ of depth $n$ with a sparse random external field, given by a collection of i.i.d. Bernouilli random variables with vanishing parameter $p_n$. This may me…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-24 Irene Ayuso Ventura , Quentin Berger

We study the Lyapunov exponents of models that are close to skew product systems over a C__ uniformly expanding transformation of the circle. For a continuous fibre map $\phi$, analytic, increasing, and convex in the fibre variable, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Thomas Morand

This paper tackles the challenge presented by small-data to the task of Bayesian inference. A novel methodology, based on manifold learning and manifold sampling, is proposed for solving this computational statistics problem under the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Christian Soize , Roger Ghanem

We consider a multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes, where the largest in magnitude positive eigenvalue $\rho$ of the first moments matrix is close to unity. Specifically, we examine the random vector representing the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-24 T. B. Lysetskyi , Ya. I. Yeleiko

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-23 Dimitris Korobilis , Kenichi Shimizu

Conditioning a multitype Galton-Watson process to stay alive into the indefinite future leads to what is known as its associated $Q$-process. We show that the same holds true if the process is conditioned to reach a positive threshold or a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-09 Sophie Pénisson

We investigate how a catastrophic event (modeled as a temporary fall of the reproduction rate) increases the extinction probability of an isolated self-regulated stochastic population. Using a variant of the Verhulst logistic model as an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-06 Michael Assaf , Alex Kamenev , Baruch Meerson

We analyze the interactions between division, mutation and selection in a simplified evolutionary model, assuming that the population observed can be classified into fitness levels. The construction of our mathematical framework is…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Irene Balelli , Vuk Milišić , Gilles Wainrib

Over the past century, nonlinear difference and differential equations have been used to understand conditions for species coexistence. However, these models fail to account for random fluctuations due to demographic and environmental…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-12 Sebastian J. Schreiber