Related papers: Galton-Watson process and bayesian inference: A tu…
In this paper, the extinction problem for a class of distylous plant populations is considered within the framework of certain nonhomogeneous nearest-neighbor random walks in the positive quadrant. For the latter, extinction means…
Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival…
We consider the bifurcating Markov chain model introduced by Guyon to detect cellular aging from cell lineage. To take into account the possibility for a cell to die, we use an underlying Galton-Watson process to describe the evolution of…
We study asymptotic properties of supercritical Galton-Watson (GW) branching processes in the asymptotic where the mean of the offspring distribution approaches 1 from above. We show that the population-size distribution of the GW branching…
Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…
The aim of this lecture is to give an overview of old and new resultson Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson (BGW) trees. After introducing the framework of discretetrees, we first give alternative proofs of classical results on theextinction…
We study the exploration (or height) process of a continuous time non-binary Galton-Watson random tree, in the subcritical, critical and supercritical cases. Thus we consider the branching process in continuous time (Z_{t})_{t\geq 0}, which…
A properly scaled critical Galton-Watson process converges to a continuous state critical branching process $\xi(\cdot)$ as the number of initial individuals tends to infinity. We extend this classical result by allowing for overlapping…
We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate…
We investigate Galton--Watson processes in varying environment, for which $\bar f_n \uparrow 1$ and $\sum_{n=1}^\infty (1-\bar f_n) = \infty$, where $\bar f_n$ stands for the offspring mean in generation $n$. Since the process dies out…
We develop a Bayesian model-based approach to finite population estimation accounting for spatial dependence. Our innovation here is a framework that achieves inference for finite population quantities in spatial process settings. A key…
Reinforced Galton-Watson processes have been introduced in arxiv:2306.02476 as population models with non-overlapping generations, such that reproduction events along genealogical lines can be repeated at random. We investigate here some of…
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…
Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…
The classical Galton--Watson process works with a fixed probability of fission at each time step. One of the generalizations is that the probabilities depend on time. We consider one of the most complex and interesting cases when we do not…
Consider any supercritical Galton-Watson process which may become extinct with positive probability. It is a well-understood and intuitively obvious phenomenon that, on the survival set, the process may be pathwise decomposed into a…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
We consider a continuous-time Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson process with logistic competition in a regime of weak competition, or equivalently of a large carrying capacity. Individuals reproduce at random times independently of each other but…
We present a stochastic model for the size of a taxon in paleobiology, in which we allow for the evolution of new taxon members, and both individual and catastrophic extinction events. The model uses ideas from the theory of birth and death…
We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…