Related papers: Volatility Models Applied to Geophysics and High F…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines…

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…

Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…

This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…

The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…

We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…

This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…

We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…

This paper introduces a unique and valuable research design aimed at analyzing Bitcoin price volatility. To achieve this, a range of models from the Markov Switching-GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility (SARV) model classes are…

This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…

It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…

This study aims to compare multiple deep learning-based forecasters for the task of predicting volatility using multivariate data. The paper evaluates a range of models, starting from simpler and shallower ones and progressing to deeper and…

Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…