Related papers: Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are shaping modern life, from transportation, health care, science, finance, to national defense. Forecasts of AI development could help improve policy- and decision-making. We report the results…
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results…
AI and related technologies are reshaping jobs and tasks, either by automating or augmenting human skills in the workplace. Many researchers have been working on estimating if and to what extent jobs and tasks are exposed to the risk of…
The terms 'human-level artificial intelligence' and 'artificial general intelligence' are widely used to refer to the possibility of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) with potentially extreme impacts on society. These terms are poorly…
In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts…
This study investigates public expectations regarding the likelihood and timing of major artificial intelligence (AI) developments among Swedes. Through a mixed-mode survey (web/paper) of 1,026 respondents, we examined expectations across…
AI is transforming human labor at an unprecedented pace - improving 10$\times$ per year in training effectiveness. This paper analyzes how society can adapt to AI-driven human-labor automation (HLA), using Bernardi et al.'s societal…
This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material…
This study investigates the labor market consequences of AI by analyzing near real-time changes in employment status and work hours across occupations in relation to advances in AI capabilities. We construct a dynamic Occupational AI…
There is significant concern that technological advances, especially in Robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI), could lead to high levels of unemployment in the coming decades. Studies have estimated that around half of all current jobs…
As artificial intelligence increasingly influences our world, it becomes crucial to assess its technical progress and societal impact. This paper surveys problems and opportunities in the measurement of AI systems and their impact, based on…
There is, in some quarters, concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science…
Research has a long history of discussing what is superior in predicting certain outcomes: statistical methods or the human brain. This debate has repeatedly been sparked off by the remarkable technological advances in the field of…
Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job…
AI is transforming research. It is being leveraged to construct surveys, synthesize data, conduct analysis, and write summaries of the results. While the promise is to create efficiencies and increase quality, the reality is not always as…
This contribution explores how the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into organizational practices can be effectively framed through a socio-technical perspective to comply with the requirements of Human-centered AI (HCAI).…
Generative AI is expected to have transformative effects in multiple knowledge industries. To better understand how knowledge workers expect generative AI may affect their industries in the future, we conducted participatory research…
Autonomous multi-agent AI systems are poised to transform various industries, particularly software development and knowledge work. Understanding current perceptions among professionals is crucial for anticipating adoption challenges,…
The "AI Scientist" paradigm is transforming scientific research by automating key stages of the research process, from idea generation to scholarly writing. This shift is expected to accelerate discovery and expand the scope of scientific…
Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon.…