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We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…
We consider heteroscedastic nonparametric regression models, when both the mean function and variance function are unknown and to be estimated with nonparametric approaches. We derive convergence rates of posterior distributions for this…
We explore the estimation of generalized additive models using basis expansion in conjunction with Bayesian model selection. Although Bayesian model selection is useful for regression splines, it has traditionally been applied mainly to…
Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area-level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an…
Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This…
This note is concerned with an accurate and computationally efficient variational bayesian treatment of mixed-effects modelling. We focus on group studies, i.e. empirical studies that report multiple measurements acquired in multiple…
This paper develops a bias correction scheme for a multivariate normal model under a general parameterization. In the model, the mean vector and the covariance matrix share the same parameters. It includes many important regression models…
We develop an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating the cell means in an unbalanced, two-way additive model with fixed effects. We employ a hierarchical model, which reflects exchangeability of the effects within treatment and within…
We develop a new method for frequentist multiple testing with Bayesian prior information. Our procedure finds a new set of optimal p-value weights called the Bayes weights. Prior information is relevant to many multiple testing problems.…
Meta-learning aims to extract useful inductive biases from a set of related datasets. In Bayesian meta-learning, this is typically achieved by constructing a prior distribution over neural network parameters. However, specifying families of…
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to obtain a sparse representation of the effect of a categorical predictor in regression type models. As the effect of a categorical predictor is captured by a group of level effects, sparsity…
Clustering multivariate binary data is of interest in many scientific fields, including ecology, biomedicine, and social policy. Beyond heuristic clustering algorithms, such data can be modelled using multivariate Bernoulli mixture models.…
Bayesian hierarchical models can provide efficient algorithms for finding sparse solutions to ill-posed inverse problems. The models typically comprise a conditionally Gaussian prior model for the unknown which is augmented by a generalized…
In data sets with many predictors, algorithms for identifying a good subset of predictors are often used. Most such algorithms do not account for any relationships between predictors. For example, stepwise regression might select a model…
Functional bilevel methods estimate a lower-level function and plug it into a hypergradient, but this plug-in gradient can retain first-order bias when the lower-level problem is learned nonparametrically. To remove this bias, we develop a…
The order of smoothness chosen in nonparametric estimation problems is critical. This choice balances the tradeoff between model parsimony and data overfitting. The most common approach used in this context is cross-validation. However,…
Like mean, quantile and variance, mode is also an important measure of central tendency and data summary. Many practical questions often focus on "Which element (gene or file or signal) occurs most often or is the most typical among all…
In multi-parameter models, reference priors typically depend on the parameter or quantity of interest, and it is well known that this is necessary to produce objective posterior distributions with optimal properties. There are, however,…
The formulation of Bayesian inverse problems involves choosing prior distributions; choices that seem equally reasonable may lead to significantly different conclusions. We develop a computational approach to better understand the impact of…
BACKGROUND: Random-effects meta-analysis within a hierarchical normal modeling framework is commonly implemented in a wide range of evidence synthesis applications. More general problems may even be tackled when considering meta-regression…