Related papers: Stein Variational Online Changepoint Detection wit…
In the analysis of sequential data, the detection of abrupt changes is important in predicting future changes. In this paper, we propose statistical hypothesis tests for detecting covariance structure changes in locally smooth time series…
In time series data analysis, detecting change points on a real-time basis (online) is of great interest in many areas, such as finance, environmental monitoring, and medicine. One promising means to achieve this is the Bayesian online…
Near real time change detection is important for a variety of Earth monitoring applications and remains a high priority for remote sensing science. Data sparsity, subtle changes, seasonal trends, and the presence of outliers make detecting…
Standard online change point detection (CPD) methods tend to have large false discovery rates as their detections are sensitive to outliers. To overcome this drawback, we propose Greedy Online Change Point Detection (GOCPD), a…
Financial order flow exhibits a remarkable level of persistence, wherein buy (sell) trades are often followed by subsequent buy (sell) trades over extended periods. This persistence can be attributed to the division and gradual execution of…
Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs)…
We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the…
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a general-purpose optimization-based sampling algorithm that has recently exploded in popularity, but is limited by two issues: it is known to produce biased samples, and it can be slow to…
Radar must adapt to changing environments, and we propose changepoint detection as a method to do so. In the world of increasingly congested radio frequencies, radars must adapt to avoid interference. Many radar systems employ the…
The Bayesian two-step change point detection method is popular for the Hawkes process due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, the non-conjugacy between the point process likelihood and the prior requires most existing Bayesian…
We introduce a new method for high-dimensional, online changepoint detection in settings where a $p$-variate Gaussian data stream may undergo a change in mean. The procedure works by performing likelihood ratio tests against simple…
We propose a novel particle-based variational inference method designed to work with multimodal distributions. Our approach, referred to as Branched Stein Variational Gradient Descent (BSVGD), extends the classical Stein Variational…
Existing online change-point detection (CPD) methods rely on fixed-dimensional Euclidean summaries, implicitly assuming that distributional changes are well captured by moment-based or feature-based representations. They can obscure…
Particle-based approximate Bayesian inference approaches such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combine the flexibility and convergence guarantees of sampling methods with the computational benefits of variational inference. In…
We study the use of spike and slab priors for consistent estimation of the number of change points and their locations. Leveraging recent results in the variable selection literature, we show that an estimator based on spike and slab priors…
Deep neural network ensembles are powerful tools for uncertainty quantification, which have recently been re-interpreted from a Bayesian perspective. However, current methods inadequately leverage second-order information of the loss…
Ensembles of deep neural networks have achieved great success recently, but they do not offer a proper Bayesian justification. Moreover, while they allow for averaging of predictions over several hypotheses, they do not provide any…
Autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) rely on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) pseudorange measurements for accurate real-time localization and navigation. However, this dependence exposes them to sophisticated spoofing…
We consider online change detection of high dimensional data streams with sparse changes, where only a subset of data streams can be observed at each sensing time point due to limited sensing capacities. On the one hand, the detection…
In this paper we propose and analyze a novel multilevel version of Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD). SVGD is a recent particle based variational inference method. For Bayesian inverse problems with computationally expensive…