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Consider a system performing a continuous-time random walk on the integers, subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate, and followed by exponentially-distributed repair times. After any repair the system starts anew from state zero.…

In this paper we study coupled fully non-local equations, where a linear non-local operator jointly acts on the time and space variables. We establish existence and uniqueness of the solution. A maximum principle is proved and used to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Giacomo Ascione , Enrico Scalas , Bruno Toaldo , Lorenzo Torricelli

We study the distribution of the maximal jump of continuous-state branching processes. Several exact expressions and explicit asymptotics of both the local maximal jump and the global maximal jump are obtained. We also compare the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-16 Xin He , Zenghu Li

In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to a class of partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDE) driven by jump processes. Such type of models can be routinely found in applications, of which we…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-03 Mohamed Maama , Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani

Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) is a class of MCMC algorithms where the proposal distribution changes at every iteration of the chain. In this case it is important to verify that such a Markov Chain indeed has a stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-07 Gopal K. Basak , Arunangshu Biswas

Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-12-15 Milton Jara , Tomasz Komorowski , Stefano Olla

We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-25 Diego Tapias , David P. Sanders , Eduardo G. Altmann

In this short paper, we connect the procedure of constructing a totally inaccessible stopping time for a given process using the well-known Cox construction, dependent on an independent exponential random variable; with naturally occurring…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-12 Philip Protter , Andrés Riveros Valdevenito

In applications the properties of a stochastic feature often change gradually rather than abruptly, that is: after a constant phase for some time they slowly start to vary. In this paper we discuss statistical inference for the detection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-14 Michael Hoffmann , Mathias Vetter , Holger Dette

In this paper, we provide a methodology for computing the probability distribution of sojourn times for a wide class of Markov chains. Our methodology consists in writing out linear systems and matrix equations for generating functions…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-09 Valentina Cammarota , Aimé Lachal

We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and…

Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) are a class of stochastic processes with applications in several fields of applied mathematics spanning from mathematical modeling of physical phenomena to computational methods. A PDMP is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-30 Andrea Bertazzi , Joris Bierkens , Paul Dobson

Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-11 Martin Bladt , Andreea Minca , Oscar Peralta

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the correlation properties of a stationary Markovian stochastic processes affect the First Passage Time distribution. First Passage Time issues are a classical topic in stochastic processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-31 S. Micciché

In this paper, a class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with underlying fast dynamic is studied. Using a "penalty method" , an averaging result is obtained when the underlying dynamic is infinitely accelerated. The features of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-31 Alexandre Genadot

A Markovian single-server queue is studied in an interactive random environment. The arrival and service rates of the queue depend on the environment, while the transition dynamics of the random environment depends on the queue length. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-10 Yana Belopolskaya , Guodong Pang , Andrey Sarantsev , Yurii Suhov

We present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Markov chain trajectories with proposals constructed in reverse time, which is advantageous when paths are conditioned to end in a rare set. The reverse time proposal distribution is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-13 Jere Koskela , Dario Spano , Paul A. Jenkins

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

We consider the first exit time of a nonnegative Harris-recurrent Markov process from the interval $[0,A]$ as $A\to\infty$. We provide an alternative method of proof of asymptotic exponentiality of the first exit time (suitably…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-07 Moshe Pollak , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

In this short paper, we consider discrete-time Markov chains on lattices as approximations to continuous-time diffusion processes. The approximations can be interpreted as finite difference schemes for the generator of the process. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-08 Christoph Reisinger