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We consider the fundamental problem of inferring the causal direction between two univariate numeric random variables $X$ and $Y$ from observational data. The two-variable case is especially difficult to solve since it is not possible to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-23 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

Given data over the joint distribution of two random variables $X$ and $Y$, we consider the problem of inferring the most likely causal direction between $X$ and $Y$. In particular, we consider the general case where both $X$ and $Y$ may be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-17 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-23 Kailash Budhathoki , Jilles Vreeken

Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

We consider linear non-Gaussian structural equation models that involve latent confounding. In this setting, the causal structure is identifiable, but, in general, it is not possible to identify the specific causal effects. Instead, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Daniela Schkoda , Elina Robeva , Mathias Drton

Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-26 Imke Mayer , Julie Josse , Félix Raimundo , Jean-Philippe Vert

Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Wei Chen , Linjun Peng , Zhiyi Huang , Haoyue Dai , Zhifeng Hao , Ruichu Cai , Kun Zhang

We propose a method to distinguish causal influence from hidden confounding in the following scenario: given a target variable Y, potential causal drivers X, and a large number of background features, we propose a novel criterion for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-07 You-Lin Chen , Lenon Minorics , Dominik Janzing

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Discovering the complete set of causal relations among a group of variables is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Often, this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are latent or hidden confounders. When only observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Anqi Liu , Hao Liu , Tongxin Li , Saeed Karimi-Bidhendi , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar

We consider the the problem of identifying causal effects given a high-dimensional treatment vector in the presence of low-dimensional latent confounders. We assume a parametric structural causal model in which the outcome is permitted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-11 Yuhao Wang , Rajen Shah

We address the problem of determining the causal direction between two univariate, continuous-valued variables, X and Y, under the assumption of no hidden confounders. In general, it is not possible to make definitive statements about…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Katerina Hlavackova-Schindler , Suzana Marsela

Approaches to bivariate causal discovery based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle approximate the (uncomputable) Kolmogorov complexity of the models in each causal direction, selecting the one with the lower total complexity.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Tiago Brogueira , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

The algorithmic independence of conditionals, which postulates that the causal mechanism is algorithmically independent of the cause, has recently inspired many highly successful approaches to distinguish cause from effect given only…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-06 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

The Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle is solidly based on a provably ideal method of inference using Kolmogorov complexity. We test how the theory behaves in practice on a general problem in model selection: that of learning the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Qiong Gao , Ming Li , Paul Vitanyi

Causal discovery from data affected by latent confounders is an important and difficult challenge. Causal functional model-based approaches have not been used to present variables whose relationships are affected by latent confounders,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Neha Prasad , Caroline Uhler

Discovering causal relationships from observational data, particularly in the presence of latent variables, poses a challenging problem. While current local structure learning methods have proven effective and efficient when the focus lies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Feng Xie , Zheng Li , Peng Wu , Yan Zeng , Chunchen Liu , Zhi Geng

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Xinshuai Dong , Biwei Huang , Ignavier Ng , Xiangchen Song , Yujia Zheng , Songyao Jin , Roberto Legaspi , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and its variants areubiquitous techniques for matrix dimension reduction and reduced-dimensionlatent-factor extraction. One significant challenge in using PCA, is thechoice of the number of principal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Ami Tavory
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