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Time series forecasting is an active research topic in academia as well as industry. Although we see an increasing amount of adoptions of machine learning methods in solving some of those forecasting challenges, statistical methods remain…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-26 Edwin Ng , Zhishi Wang , Huigang Chen , Steve Yang , Slawek Smyl

This paper is concerned with the problem of distributed extended object tracking, which aims to collaboratively estimate the state and extension of an object by a network of nodes. In traditional tracking applications, most approaches…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Junhao Hua , Chunguang Li

Extended object tracking methods based on random matrices, founded on Bayesian filters, have been able to achieve efficient recursive processes while jointly estimating the kinematic states and extension of the targets. Existing random…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-27 Zhixing Wang , Le Zheng , Shi Yan , Ruud J. G. van Sloun , Nir Shlezinger , Yonina C. Eldar

This paper describes a family of seasonal and non-seasonal time series models that can be viewed as generalisations of additive and multiplicative exponential smoothing models, to model series that grow faster than linear but slower than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Slawek Smyl , Christoph Bergmeir , Alexander Dokumentov , Xueying Long , Erwin Wibowo , Daniel Schmidt

We present an adaptive smoother for linear state-space models with unknown process and measurement noise covariances. The proposed method utilizes the variational Bayes technique to perform approximate inference. The resulting smoother is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Tohid Ardeshiri , Emre Özkan , Umut Orguner , Fredrik Gustafsson

In this manuscript the fixed-lag smoothing problem for conditionally linear Gaussian state-space models is investigated from a factor graph perspective. More specifically, after formulating Bayesian smoothing for an arbitrary state-space…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-23 Giorgio M. Vitetta , Emilio Sirignano , Francesco Montorsi

We consider a non-parametric Bayesian model for conditional densities. The model is a finite mixture of normal distributions with covariate dependent multinomial logit mixing probabilities. A prior for the number of mixture components is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-21 Andriy Norets , Debdeep Pati

A recent line of work has shown that end-to-end optimization of Bayesian filters can be used to learn state estimators for systems whose underlying models are difficult to hand-design or tune, while retaining the core advantages of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-08-24 Brent Yi , Michelle A. Lee , Alina Kloss , Roberto Martín-Martín , Jeannette Bohg

In many fields of application, dynamic processes that evolve through time are well described by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The analytical solution of the ODEs is often not available and different methods have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-19 Saverio Ranciati , Cinzia Viroli , Ernst Wit

The Random Hypersurface Model (RHM) is introduced that allows for estimating a shape approximation of an extended object in addition to its kinematic state. An RHM represents the spatial extent by means of randomly scaled versions of the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-04-19 Marcus Baum , Uwe D. Hanebeck

In this study, we propose a novel extended target tracking algorithm which is capable of representing the extent of dynamic objects as an ellipsoid with a time-varying orientation angle. A diagonal positive semi-definite matrix is defined…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-21 Barkın Tuncer , Emre Özkan

For challenging state estimation problems arising in domains like vision and robotics, particle-based representations attractively enable temporal reasoning about multiple posterior modes. Particle smoothers offer the potential for more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Ali Younis , Erik B. Sudderth

We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Biao Yang , Jonathan R. Stroud , Gabriel Huerta

Multiple generalized additive models (GAMs) are a type of distributional regression wherein parameters of probability distributions depend on predictors through smooth functions, with selection of the degree of smoothness via $L_2$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-26 Yousra El-Bachir , Anthony C. Davison

Multi-object tracking (MOT) is the task of estimating the state trajectories of an unknown and time-varying number of objects over a certain time window. Several algorithms have been proposed to tackle the multi-object smoothing task, where…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Juliano Pinto , Georg Hess , Yuxuan Xia , Henk Wymeersch , Lennart Svensson

Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions are a powerful tool for classifying three-way data in unsupervised problems. The distribution of each component is assumed to be a matrix variate normal density. The mixture model can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-07 Cinzia Viroli

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 M-Z. Spyropoulou , J. Hopker , J. E. Griffin

Smoothing algorithms for state-space models, i.e., fixed-interval smoothing, fixed-lag smoothing, and two-filter formula for smoothing, are examined using real examples. For linear and Gaussian state-space models, it is observed that…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-10 G. Kitagawa

We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Andriy Norets , Justinas Pelenis

We consider a statistical model for matrix factorization in a regime where the rank of the two hidden matrix factors grows linearly with their dimension and their product is corrupted by additive noise. Despite various approaches,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Farzad Pourkamali , Nicolas Macris
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