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The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems play an essential role in direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation. A large number of antennas used in a MIMO system imposes a huge complexity burden on the popular DOA estimation algorithms, such…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-16 Md Imrul Hasan , Mohammad Saquib

To tackle the sign problem in the simulations of systems having indefinite or complex-valued measures, we propose a new approach which yields statistical errors smaller than the crude Monte Carlo using absolute values of the original…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2008-11-26 T D Kieu , C J Griffin

Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density $\pi(\theta)$. Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable $k$ taking values in a finite subset of $[0,1]$…

Computation · Statistics 2008-11-03 Robert B. Gramacy , Richard J. Samworth , Ruth King

A massive single-input multiple-output (SIMO) system with a single transmit antenna and a large number of receive antennas in intersymbol interference (ISI) channels is considered. Contrast to existing energy detection (ED)-based…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-02 Huiqiang Xie , Weiyang Xu , Wei Xiang , Ke Shao , Shengbo Xu

Strong multiple scattering of the probe in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) means image simulations are usually required for quantitative interpretation and analysis of elemental maps produced by electron energy-loss…

Materials Science · Physics 2019-12-25 Hamish G. Brown , Jim Ciston , Colin Ophus

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

Towards a solution to the sign problem in the simulations of systems having indefinite or complex-valued measures, we propose a new approach which yields statistical errors smaller than the crude Monte Carlo using absolute values of the…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2008-11-26 T D Kieu , C J Griffin

Importance sampling with data-driven proposal distributions is widely used in practice. A common workflow first generates an auxiliary sample of size $N$ from an approximation of the target distribution, constructs a density estimate $\hat…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Cathrine Aeckerle-Willems , Ilja Klebanov , Simon Weissmann

The detection of anisotropies with respect to a given direction in a vector field is a common problem in astronomy. Several methods have been proposed that rely on the distribution of the acute angles between the data and a reference…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-03-01 F. Dávila-Kurbán , M. Lares , D. Garcia Lambas

In the Monte Carlo (MC) method statistical noise is usually present. Statistical noise may become dominant in the calculation of a distribution, usually by iteration, but is less Important in calculating integrals. The subject of the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-11-08 Mihály Makai , Zoltán Szatmáry

The use of non-orthogonal signals has several benefits over orthogonal signals in multi-coded communications. We provide a novel, theoretical study of non-orthogonal signaling to expand the applicability of these schemes. Motivated by a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Brian Nelson , Behrouz Farhang-Boroujeny

In solving simulation-based stochastic root-finding or optimization problems that involve rare events, such as in extreme quantile estimation, running crude Monte Carlo can be prohibitively inefficient. To address this issue, importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Shengyi He , Guangxin Jiang , Henry Lam , Michael C. Fu

Classification has been a major task for building intelligent systems as it enables decision-making under uncertainty. Classifier design aims at building models from training data for representing feature-label distributions--either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-31 Omar Maddouri , Xiaoning Qian , Francis J. Alexander , Edward R. Dougherty , Byung-Jun Yoon

Importance sampling Monte-Carlo methods are widely used for the approximation of expectations with respect to partially known probability measures. In this paper we study a deterministic version of such an estimator based on quasi-Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-20 Josef Dick , Daniel Rudolf , Houying Zhu

Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) methods approximate moments of complicated distributions by drawing samples from a set of proposal distributions. Several ways to compute the importance weights assigned to each sample have been recently…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-16 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-12-24 Yixiong Ren , Jianhui Zhou

The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Annika Lang , Andreas Petersson

This paper investigates Monte Carlo (MC) methods to estimate probabilities of rare events associated with solutions to the $d$-dimensional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation (MV-SDE). MV-SDEs are usually approximated using a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-15 Nadhir Ben Rached , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Shyam Mohan Subbiah Pillai , Raúl Tempone