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We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

We address the multiple testing problem under the assumption that the true/false hypotheses are driven by a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which is recognized as a fundamental setting to model multiple testing under dependence since the seminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Marie Perrot-Dockès , Gilles Blanchard , Pierre Neuvial , Etienne Roquain

Diagnostic accuracy studies assess sensitivity and specificity of a new index test in relation to an established comparator or the reference standard. The development and selection of the index test is usually assumed to be conducted prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-30 Max Westphal , Antonia Zapf

Multiple testing problems are a staple of modern statistical analysis. The fundamental objective of multiple testing procedures is to reject as many false null hypotheses as possible (that is, maximize some notion of power), subject to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-30 Saharon Rosset , Ruth Heller , Amichai Painsky , Ehud Aharoni

Multivariate statistics are often available as well as necessary in hypothesis tests. We study how to use such statistics to control not only false discovery rate (FDR) but also positive FDR (pFDR) with good power. We show that FDR can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-21 Zhiyi Chi

The estimation of functional networks through functional covariance and graphical models have recently attracted increasing attention in settings with high dimensional functional data, where the number of functional variables p is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-05 Qin Fang , Qing Jiang , Xinghao Qiao

Many approaches for multiple testing begin with the assumption that all tests in a given study should be combined into a global false-discovery-rate analysis. But this may be inappropriate for many of today's large-scale screening problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-10 James G. Scott , Ryan C. Kelly , Matthew A. Smith , Pengcheng Zhou , Robert E. Kass

The Model-X knockoff procedure has recently emerged as a powerful approach for feature selection with statistical guarantees. The advantage of knockoff is that if we have a good model of the features X, then we can identify salient features…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , James Zou

The evaluation of logic locking methods has long been predicated on an implicit assumption that only the correct key can unveil the true functionality of a protected circuit. Consequently, a locking technique is deemed secure if it resists…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-08-26 Yinghua Hu , Hari Cherupalli , Mike Borza , Deepak Sherlekar

The partial conjunction null hypothesis is tested in order to discover a signal that is present in multiple studies. The standard approach of carrying out a multiple test procedure on the partial conjunction (PC) $p$-values can be extremely…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Thorsten Dickhaus , Ruth Heller , Anh-Tuan Hoang , Yosef Rinott

For future extremely large telescopes, error in extreme adaptive optics systems at small angular separations will be highly impacted by the lag time of the correction, which is typically on millisecond timescales; one solution is to apply a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-05 J. Fowler , M. A. M. van Kooten , R. Jensen-Clem

Compounding error, where small prediction mistakes accumulate over time, presents a major challenge in learning-based control. For example, this issue often limits the performance of model-based reinforcement learning and imitation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-03 Anne Somalwar , Bruce D. Lee , George J. Pappas , Nikolai Matni

Multiple testing with false discovery rate (FDR) control has been widely conducted in the ``discrete paradigm" where p-values have discrete and heterogeneous null distributions. However, in this scenario existing FDR procedures often lose…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Xiongzhi Chen , R. W. Doerge , Sanat K. Sarkar

Two of the most studied extensions of trace and testing equivalences to nondeterministic and probabilistic processes induce distinctions that have been questioned and lack properties that are desirable. Probabilistic trace-distribution…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Marco Bernardo , Rocco De Nicola , Michele Loreti

As single-cell gene expression data analysis continues to grow, the need for reliable clustering methods has become increasingly important. The prevalence of heuristic means for method choice could lead to inaccurate reports if…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-19 Owen Visser , Somnath Datta

This paper addresses the following general scenario: A scientist wishes to perform a battery of experiments, each generating a sequential stream of data, to investigate some phenomenon. The scientist would like to control the overall error…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-12 Jay Bartroff , Jinlin Song

Solving nonlinear model predictive control problems in real time is still an important challenge despite of recent advances in computing hardware, optimization algorithms and tailored implementations. This challenge is even greater when…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-23 Benjamin Karg , Teodoro Alamo , Sergio Lucia

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-04 Igor Halperin

While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue