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Causal inference with time-to-event outcomes is fundamental in various scientific studies. In a static setup with fitted propensity scores, weighted Kaplan-Meier estimation for survival probabilities and weighted Breslow-Peto estimation for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Wenfu Xu , Yi Zhang , Tobias Gerhard , Zhiqiang Tan

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables to assess whether a risk factor is a cause of a disease outcome. Increasingly, Mendelian randomization investigations are conducted on the basis of summarized…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-15 Stephen Burgess , Jack Bowden

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee

Missing confounders are common in observational studies and present fundamental challenges for causal effect estimation by weakening identification and increasing sensitivity to model misspecification. Within the missing-indicator…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Md. Shaddam Hossain Bagmar , Hua Shen

Calibration weighting has been widely used to correct selection biases in non-probability sampling, missing data, and causal inference. The main idea is to calibrate the biased sample to the benchmark by adjusting the subject weights.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Chenyin Gao , Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

In the causal adjustment setting, variable selection techniques based on either the outcome or treatment allocation model can result in the omission of confounders or the inclusion of spurious variables in the propensity score. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Masoud Asgharian , David A. Stephens

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

Assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding is an important step in observational studies, which typically estimate effects under the assumption that all confounders are measured. In this paper, we develop a sensitivity analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-04 Dan Soriano , Eli Ben-Michael , Peter J. Bickel , Avi Feller , Samuel D. Pimentel

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Lars van der Laan , Ziming Lin , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

In the causal inference literature an estimator belonging to a class of semi-parametric estimators is called robust if it has desirable properties under the assumption that at least one of the working models is correctly specified. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-26 Ingeborg Waernbaum , Laura Pazzagli

Misclassified binary outcome or mediator variables can cause unpredictable bias in resulting parameter estimates. As more datasets that were not originally collected for research purposes are being used for studies in the social and health…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-15 Kimberly A. Hochstedler Webb , Martin T. Wells

Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-20 Zhexiao Lin , Fang Han

A key condition for obtaining reliable estimates of the causal effect of a treatment is overlap (a.k.a. positivity): the distributions of the features used to perform causal adjustment cannot be too different in the treated and control…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Misclassification of binary responses, if ignored, may severely bias the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of regression parameters. For such data, a binary regression model incorporating misclassification probabilities is extensively…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-28 Arindam Chatterjee , Tathagata Bandyopadhyay , Sumanta Adhya

Existing metrics in competing risks survival analysis such as concordance and accuracy do not evaluate a model's ability to jointly predict the event type and the event time. To address these limitations, we propose a new metric, which we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-20 Kartik Ahuja , Mihaela van der Schaar

Treatment specific survival curves are an important tool to illustrate the treatment effect in studies with time-to-event outcomes. In non-randomized studies, unadjusted estimates can lead to biased depictions due to confounding. Multiple…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Robin Denz , Renate Klaaßen-Mielke , Nina Timmesfeld
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