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We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…
The approximation of a high-dimensional vector by a small combination of column vectors selected from a fixed matrix has been actively debated in several different disciplines. In this paper, a sampling approach based on the Monte Carlo…
Starting from limited measurements of a turbulent flow, data assimilation (DA) attempts to estimate all the spatio-temporal scales of motion. Success is dependent on whether the system is observable from the measurements, or how much of the…
Data assimilation (DA) aims at optimally merging observational data and model outputs to create a coherent statistical and dynamical picture of the system under investigation. Indeed, DA aims at minimizing the effect of observational and…
We propose a variant of the Simulated Annealing method for optimization in the multivariate analysis of differentiable functions. The method uses global actualizations via the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm in their generalized version for…
Data-Augmentation (DA) is known to improve performance across tasks and datasets. We propose a method to theoretically analyze the effect of DA and study questions such as: how many augmented samples are needed to correctly estimate the…
Every day, weather forecasting centres around the world make use of noisy, incomplete observations of the atmosphere to update their weather forecasts. This process is known as data assimilation, data fusion or state estimation and is best…
Population annealing is an easily parallelizable sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is well-suited for simulating the equilibrium properties of systems with rough free energy landscapes. In this work we seek to understand and improve the…
Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of…
Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble…
Many dynamical systems are difficult or impossible to model using high fidelity physics based models. Consequently, researchers are relying more on data driven models to make predictions and forecasts. Based on limited training data,…
Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on…
Probabilistic reasoning systems combine different probabilistic rules and probabilistic facts to arrive at the desired probability values of consequences. In this paper we describe the MESA-algorithm (Maximum Entropy by Simulated Annealing)…
Fitting nonlinear dynamical models to sparse and noisy observations is fundamentally challenging. Identifying dynamics requires data assimilation (DA) to estimate system states, but DA requires an accurate dynamical model. To break this…
Monte Carlo methods represent a cornerstone of computer science. They allow to sample high dimensional distribution functions in an efficient way. In this paper we consider the extension of Automatic Differentiation (AD) techniques to Monte…
Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…
Annealed Sequential Monte Carlo (ASMC) samplers are special cases of SMC samplers where the sequence of distributions can be embedded in a smooth path of distributions. Using this underlying path and a performance model based on the…
A goal of data assimilation is to infer stochastic dynamical behaviors with available observations. We consider transition phenomena between metastable states for a stochastic system with (non-Gaussian) $\alpha-$stable L\'evy noise. With…
In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…
Earth system modeling presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing: capturing complex, multiscale nonlinear dynamics in computationally efficient models while minimizing forecast errors caused by necessary simplifications. Even…