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We propose a novel Bayesian method to solve the maximization of a time-dependent expensive-to-evaluate oracle. We are interested in the decision that maximizes the oracle at a finite time horizon, when relatively few noisy evaluations can…
Sequential decision tasks with incomplete information are characterized by the exploration problem; namely the trade-off between further exploration for learning more about the environment and immediate exploitation of the accrued…
Major events like natural catastrophes or the COVID-19 crisis have impact both on the financial market and on claim arrival intensities and claim sizes of insurers. Thus, when optimal investment and reinsurance strategies have to be…
We consider a continuous-time linear-quadratic Gaussian control problem with partial observations and costly information acquisition. More precisely, we assume the drift of the state process to be governed by an unobservable…
We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can…
We study an optimal investment problem under default risk where related information such as loss or recovery at default is considered as an exogenous random mark added at default time. Two types of agents who have different levels of…
We study the optimal portfolio liquidation problem over a finite horizon in a limit order book with bid-ask spread and temporary market price impact penalizing speedy execution trades. We use a continuous-time modeling framework, but in…
This paper presents several models addressing optimal portfolio choice, optimal portfolio liquidation, and optimal portfolio transition issues, in which the expected returns of risky assets are unknown. Our approach is based on a coupling…
Consider a decision maker who is responsible to dynamically collect observations so as to enhance his information about an underlying phenomena of interest in a speedy manner while accounting for the penalty of wrong declaration. Due to the…
State-of-the-art multi-objective optimization often assumes a known utility function, learns it interactively, or computes the full Pareto front-each requiring costly expert input.~Real-world problems, however, involve implicit preferences…
We address the problem of Bayesian reinforcement learning using efficient model-based online planning. We propose an optimism-free Bayes-adaptive algorithm to induce deeper and sparser exploration with a theoretical bound on its performance…
We show that the optimal decision policy for several types of Bayesian sequential detection problems has a threshold switching curve structure on the space of posterior distributions. This is established by using lattice programming and…
When learning to ride a bike, a child falls down a number of times before achieving the first success. As falling down usually has only mild consequences, it can be seen as a tolerable failure in exchange for a faster learning process, as…
We study how we can adapt a predictor to a non-stationary environment with advises from multiple experts. We study the problem under complete feedback when the best expert changes over time from a decision theoretic point of view. Proposed…
We consider black-box global optimization of time-consuming-to-evaluate functions on behalf of a decision-maker (DM) whose preferences must be learned. Each feasible design is associated with a time-consuming-to-evaluate vector of…
Many interventions, such as vaccines in clinical trials or coupons in online marketplaces, must be assigned sequentially without full knowledge of their effects. Multi-armed bandit algorithms have proven successful in such settings.…
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is crucial for real-world applications where exploration can be costly or unsafe. However, offline learned policies are often suboptimal, and further online fine-tuning is required. In this paper, we…
An agent has access to multiple information sources, each of which provides information about a different attribute of an unknown state. Information is acquired continuously -- where the agent chooses both which sources to sample from, and…
Optimal stopping is the problem of deciding when to stop a stochastic system to obtain the greatest reward, arising in numerous application areas such as finance, healthcare and marketing. State-of-the-art methods for high-dimensional…
In this paper, we investigate the Merton portfolio management problem in the context of non-exponential discounting. This gives rise to time-inconsistency of the decision-maker. If the decision-maker at time t=0 can commit his/her…