Related papers: An interval-valued GARCH model for range-measured …

A new multivariate integer-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic process based on a multivariate Poisson generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed. The estimation of parameters of the proposed…

The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…

Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are widely used for modelling features commonly found in observed financial returns. The extremal properties of these processes are of considerable interest for…

We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the…

This paper presents a novel estimator of orthogonal GARCH models, which combines (eigenvalue and -vector) targeting estimation with stepwise (univariate) estimation. We denote this the spectral targeting estimator. This two-step estimator…

Alpha-based performance evaluation may fail to capture correlated residuals due to model errors. This paper proposes using the Generalized Information Ratio (GIR) to measure performance under misspecified benchmarks. Motivated by the…

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…

In this paper, we derive some asymptotic theory for the extremogram and cross-extremogram of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process. We show that the tails of the components of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process may exhibit power law behavior but,…

We propose an approach to compute inner and outer-approximations of the sets of values satisfying constraints expressed as arbitrarily quantified formulas. Such formulas arise for instance when specifying important problems in control such…

By treating intervals as inseparable sets, this paper proposes sparse machine learning regressions for high-dimensional interval-valued time series. With LASSO or adaptive LASSO techniques, we develop a penalized minimum distance…

In this paper, an application of three GARCH-type models (sGARCH, iGARCH, and tGARCH) with Student t-distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED), and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution are examined. The new development allows…

A new integer--valued autoregressive process (INAR) with Generalised Lagrangian Katz (GLK) innovations is defined. This process family provides a flexible modelling framework for count data, allowing for under and over--dispersion,…

We construct and analyze an estimator of association between random variables based on their similarity in both direction and magnitude. Under special conditions, the proposed measure becomes a robust and consistent estimator of the linear…

We analyze two theoretical approaches to ensemble averaging for integrable systems in quantum chaos - spectral averaging and parametric averaging. For spectral averaging, we introduce a new procedure - rescaled spectral averaging. Unlike…

We introduce the notion of continuously invertible volatility models that relies on some Lyapunov condition and some regularity condition. We show that it is almost equivalent to the ability of the volatilities forecasting using the…

Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted indexed…

We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…

Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…