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Gaussian process (GP) regression is a non-parametric, Bayesian framework to approximate complex models. Standard GP regression can lead to an unbounded model in which some points can take infeasible values. We introduce a new GP method that…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…
Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…
We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an It\^o stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such…
This paper presents a Gaussian process (GP) model for estimating piecewise continuous regression functions. In scientific and engineering applications of regression analysis, the underlying regression functions are piecewise continuous in…
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are multi-layer, flexible extensions of Gaussian processes but their training remains challenging. Sparse approximations simplify the training but often require optimization over a large number of inducing…
Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a widely used class of models of interest to statisticians as they provide a flexible way to design interpretable models of data beyond linear models. We here propose a scalable and well-calibrated…
Inference in Gaussian process (GP) models is computationally challenging for large data, and often difficult to approximate with a small number of inducing points. We explore an alternative approximation that employs stochastic inference…
Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…
Gaussian process (GP) regression with 1D inputs can often be performed in linear time via a stochastic differential equation formulation. However, for non-Gaussian likelihoods, this requires application of approximate inference methods…
We consider the problem of calculating learning curves (i.e., average generalization performance) of Gaussian processes used for regression. On the basis of a simple expression for the generalization error, in terms of the eigenvalue…
We propose simple methods for multivariate diffusion bridge simulation, which plays a fundamental role in simulation-based likelihood and Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations. By a novel application of classical coupling…
Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a rich class of models that can better represent functions with varying regimes or sharp changes, compared to conventional GPs. In this work, we propose a novel inference method for DGPs for computer…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…
Several recent works have explored stochastic gradient methods for variational inference that exploit the geometry of the variational-parameter space. However, the theoretical properties of these methods are not well-understood and these…
Gaussian processes (GP) are a widely used model for regression problems in supervised machine learning. Implementation of GP regression typically requires $O(n^3)$ logic gates. We show that the quantum linear systems algorithm [Harrow et…
Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such…
Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…
Variational Optimization forms a differentiable upper bound on an objective. We show that approaches such as Natural Evolution Strategies and Gaussian Perturbation, are special cases of Variational Optimization in which the expectations are…
In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the…