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Local variable selection aims to test for the effect of covariates on an outcome within specific regions. We outline a challenge that arises in the presence of non-linear effects and model misspecification. Specifically, for common…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 David Rossell , Arnold Kisuk Kseung , Ignacio Saez , Michele Guindani

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

Variational inference (VI) is a widely used framework in Bayesian estimation. For most of the non-Gaussian statistical models, it is infeasible to find an analytically tractable solution to estimate the posterior distributions of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-31 Zhanyu Ma , Jalil Taghia , Jun Guo

In this paper we propose a solution to the problem of parameter estimation of nonlinearly parameterized regressions--continuous or discrete time--and apply it for system identification and adaptive control. We restrict our attention to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-18 Romeo Ortega , Vladislav Gromov , Emmanuel Nuño , Anton Pyrkin , Jose Guadalupe Romero

Limited-information inference on New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs) and other single-equation macroeconomic relations is characterised by weak and high-dimensional instrumental variables (IVs). Beyond the efficiency concerns previously…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-23 Max-Sebastian Dovì

Instrumental variable models allow us to identify a causal function between covariates $X$ and a response $Y$, even in the presence of unobserved confounding. Most of the existing estimators assume that the error term in the response $Y$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-23 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Leonard Henckel , Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Model-Implied Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Squares (MIIV-2SLS) is a limited information, equation-by-equation, non-iterative estimator for latent variable models. Associated with this estimator are equation specific tests of model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-17 Teague R. Henry , Zachary F. Fisher , Kenneth A. Bollen

We develop a novel test of the instrumental variable identifying assumptions for heterogeneous treatment effect models with conditioning covariates. We assume semiparametric dependence between potential outcomes and conditioning covariates.…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-19 Thomas Carr , Toru Kitagawa

We consider a semiparametric partly linear model identified by instrumental variables. We propose an estimation method that does not smooth on the instruments and we extend the Landweber-Fridman regularization scheme to the estimation of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-26 Jean-Pierre Florens , Elia Lapenta

I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering the moment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Seojeong Lee

In the context of sensitivity analysis of complex phenomena in presence of uncertainty, we motivate and precise the idea of orienting the analysis towards a critical domain of the studied phenomenon. We make a brief history of related…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Hugo Raguet , Amandine Marrel

As technology advanced, collecting data via automatic collection devices become popular, thus we commonly face data sets with lengthy variables, especially when these data sets are collected without specific research goals beforehand. It…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-10 Wan-Ping Nicole Chen , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) estimators face a fundamental constraint: they can only accommodate as many endogenous treatment variables as available instruments. This limitation becomes particularly challenging in settings where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Shiangyi Lin , Hui Lan , Vasilis Syrgkanis

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

This paper considers adaptive, minimax estimation of a quadratic functional in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model, which is an important problem in optimal estimation of a nonlinear functional of an ill-posed inverse…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Christoph Breunig , Xiaohong Chen

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a standard strategy for learning causal relationships between confounded treatment and outcome variables from observational data by utilizing an instrumental variable, which affects the outcome only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Liyuan Xu , Yutian Chen , Siddarth Srinivasan , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet , Arthur Gretton

VARs are often estimated with Bayesian techniques to cope with model dimensionality. The posterior means define a class of shrinkage estimators, indexed by hyperparameters that determine the relative weight on maximum likelihood estimates…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-07 Oriol González-Casasús , Frank Schorfheide

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Christoph Schultheiss , Peter Bühlmann

Instrumental variable methods provide useful tools for inferring causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. To apply these methods with large-scale data sets, a major challenge is to find valid instruments from a possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Xinyi Zhang , Linbo Wang , Stanislav Volgushev , Dehan Kong

Instrumental variable analysis is a powerful tool for estimating causal effects when randomization or full control of confounders is not possible. The application of standard methods such as 2SLS, GMM, and more recent variants are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-08 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Tobias Schnabel