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We propose a new procedure for inference on optimal treatment regimes in the model-free setting, which does not require to specify an outcome regression model. Existing model-free estimators for optimal treatment regimes are usually not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-06 Yunan Wu , Lan Wang

In this paper, we propose a data-adaptive empirical likelihood-based approach for treatment effect estimation and inference, which overcomes the obstacle of the traditional empirical likelihood-based approaches in the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Wei Liang , Ying Yan

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Chathura Siriwardhana , K. B. Kulasekera , Somnath Datta

I examine the problem of treatment choice when a planner observes (i) covariates that describe each member of a population of interest and (ii) the outcomes of an experiment in which subjects randomly drawn from this population are randomly…

Applications · Statistics 2013-02-01 Charles F. Manski

In clinical practice, there is significant interest in integrating novel biomarkers with existing clinical data to construct interpretable and robust decision rules. Motivated by the need to improve decision-making for early disease…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Albert Osom , Camden Lopez , Ashley Alexander , Suresh Chari , Ziding Feng , Ying-Qi Zhao

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Identifying patients who benefit from a treatment is a key aspect of personalized medicine, which allows the development of individualized treatment rules (ITRs). Many machine learning methods have been proposed to create such rules.…

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-05 Charles F. Manski

Individualized treatment rules tailor treatments to patients based on clinical, demographic, and other characteristics. Estimation of individualized treatment rules requires the identification of individuals who benefit most from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-06 Junwei Shen , Erica E. M. Moodie , Shirin Golchi

Uplift modeling is an emerging machine learning approach for estimating the treatment effect at an individual or subgroup level. It can be used for optimizing the performance of interventions such as marketing campaigns and product designs.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-27 Zhenyu Zhao , Totte Harinen

In the absence of data from a randomized trial, researchers often aim to use observational data to draw causal inference about the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome. In this context, interest often focuses on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Ted Westling , Alex Luedtke , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone

Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action $a$ to take…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-07 Iiris Sundin , Peter Schulam , Eero Siivola , Aki Vehtari , Suchi Saria , Samuel Kaski

The treatment assignment mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized for statistical efficiency within a specified class of randomization mechanisms. Optimal designs of this type have been characterized in terms of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

Dynamic treatment regimes are sequential decision rules that adapt treatment according to individual time-varying characteristics and outcomes to achieve optimal effects, with applications in precision medicine, personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuanshan Gao , Yang Bai , Yifan Cui

The field of precision medicine aims to tailor treatment based on patient-specific factors in a reproducible way. To this end, estimating an optimal individualized treatment regime (ITR) that recommends treatment decisions based on patient…

When estimating treatment effects, the golden standard is to conduct a randomized experiment and then contrast outcomes associated with the treatment group and the control group. However, in many cases, randomized experiments are either…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kevin Han

Balancing influential covariates is crucial for valid treatment comparisons in clinical studies. While covariate-adaptive randomization is commonly used to achieve balance, its performance can be inadequate when the number of baseline…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ziqing Guo , Yang Liu , Lucy Xia

One of the key challenges when developing a predictive model is the capability to describe the domain knowledge and the cause-effect relationships in a simple way. Decision rules are a useful and important methodology in this context,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Francisco Valente , Jorge Henriques , Simão Paredes , Teresa Rocha , Paulo de Carvalho , João Morais

A treatment benefit predictor (TBP) is a function that maps patient characteristics to an estimate of the treatment benefit for that patient. Such predictors support optimizing individualized treatment decisions, which are central to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Yuan Xia , Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Paul Gustafson
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