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We study an optimal process control problem with multiple assignable causes. The process is initially in-control but is subject to random transition to one of multiple out-of-control states due to assignable causes. The objective is to find…

We introduce missingness-MDPs (miss-MDPs), a novel subclass of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that incorporates the theory of missing data. A miss-MDP is a POMDP whose observation function is a missingness function,…

In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying the attributes of dynamical systems characterized as a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the…

Policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are often designed using a nominal system model. In practice, this model can deviate from the true system during deployment due to factors such as calibration drift or…

Autonomous agents that operate in the real world must often deal with partial observability, which is commonly modeled as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, traditional POMDP models rely on the assumption of…

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

We consider the problem of optimally utilizing $N$ resources, each in an unknown binary state. The state of each resource can be inferred from state-dependent noisy measurements. Depending on its state, utilizing a resource results in…

Sequential decisions in volatile, high-stakes settings require more than maximizing expected return; they require principled uncertainty management. This paper presents the Uncertainty-Aware Markov Decision Process (UAMDP), a unified…

Methods for model parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and experimental design are summarized in this paper. They are based on the generalized least squares estimator and different approximations of its covariance matrix using…

In many practical applications, decision-making processes must balance the costs of acquiring information with the benefits it provides. Traditional control systems often assume full observability, an unrealistic assumption when…

Many control problems in environments that can be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs) concern infinite-time horizon specifications. The classical aim in this context is to compute a control policy that maximizes the probability of…

In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of a multi-species fisheries system in the presence of harvesting. We solve the problem of finding the optimal harvesting strategy for a mid-term horizon with a fixed final stock of each species, while…

Synthesising verifiably correct controllers for dynamical systems is crucial for safety-critical problems. To achieve this, it is important to account for uncertainty in a robust manner, while at the same time it is often of interest to…

We describe a probabilistic framework for synthesizing control policies for general multi-robot systems, given environment and sensor models and a cost function. Decentralized, partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) are…

In many sequential decision-making problems, the goal is to optimize a utility function while satisfying a set of constraints on different utilities. This learning problem is formalized through Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs).…

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

The intent of this research is to generate a set of non-dominated policies from which one of two agents (the leader) can select a most preferred policy to control a dynamic system that is also affected by the control decisions of the other…

Deciding which sensing capabilities to deploy on an agent in uncertain domains is a fundamental engineering challenge, in which one balances task achievability against the high costs of hardware and processing. This problem has previously…

The Koopman operator enables simplified representations for nonlinear systems in data-driven optimal control, but the accompanying uncertainties inevitably induce deviations in the optimal controller and associated value function. This…