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Ambiguity is inherently present in many machine learning tasks, but especially for sequential models seldom accounted for, as most only output a single prediction. In this work we propose an extension of the Multiple Hypothesis Prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-24 Alessandro Berlati , Oliver Scheel , Luigi Di Stefano , Federico Tombari

We propose a pricing technique based on coherent risk measures, which enables one to get finer price intervals than in the No Good Deals pricing. The main idea consists in splitting a liability into several parts and selling these parts to…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Alexander S. Cherny , Dilip B. Madan

We consider the problem of an agent who faces losses in continuous time over a finite time horizon and may choose to share some of these losses with a counterparty. The agent is uncertain about the true loss distribution and has multiple…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-13 Emma Kroell , Sebastian Jaimungal , Silvana M. Pesenti

We combine forward investment performance processes and ambiguity averse portfolio selection. We introduce the notion of robust forward criteria which addresses the issues of ambiguity in model specification and in preferences and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-11-17 Sigrid Kallblad , Jan Obloj , Thaleia Zariphopoulou

We derive a backward and forward nonlinear PDEs that govern the implied volatility of a contingent claim whenever the latter is well-defined. This would include at least any contingent claim written on a positive stock price whose payoff at…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-18 Peter Carr , Andrey Itkin , Sasha Stoikov

In this paper, we construct the utility-based optimal hedging strategy for a European-type option in the Almgren-Chriss model with temporary price impact. The main mathematical challenge of this work stems from the degeneracy of the second…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-18 Ibrahim Ekren , Sergey Nadtochiy

We determine the variance-optimal hedge when the logarithm of the underlying price follows a process with stationary independent increments in discrete or continuous time. Although the general solution to this problem is known as backward…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Friedrich Hubalek , Jan Kallsen , Leszek Krawczyk

A quadratic discrete time probabilistic model, for optimal portfolio selection in (re-)insurance is studied. For positive values of underwriting levels, the expected value of the accumulated result is optimized, under constraints on its…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Erik Taflin

Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the description of the log-returns of financial assets. The pricing and hedging of contingent products…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-31 Joan del Castillo , Juan-Pablo Ortega

We unify and establish equivalence between the pathwise and the quasi-sure approaches to robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time. In particular, we prove a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-04 Jan Obloj , Johannes Wiesel

We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-23 Ulrich Horst , Michael Kupper , Andrea Macrina , Christoph Mainberger

We propose a pseudo-market solution to resource allocation problems subject to constraints. Our treatment of constraints is general: including bihierarchical constraints due to considerations of diversity in school choice, or scheduling in…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-11-09 Federico Echenique , Antonio Miralles , Jun Zhang

Dybvig (1988a,b) solves in a complete market setting the problem of finding a payoff that is cheapest possible in reaching a given target distribution ("cost-efficient payoff"). In the presence of ambiguity, the distribution of a payoff is,…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-11 Carole Bernard , Gero Junike , Thibaut Lux , Steven Vanduffel

In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-16 Denis Belomestny , Volker Kraetschmer

The paper studies problem of continuous time optimal portfolio selection for a incom- plete market diffusion model. It is shown that, under some mild conditions, near optimal strategies for investors with different performance criteria can…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-04-15 Nikolai Dokuchaev

This paper studies the equilibrium price of an asset that is traded in continuous time between N agents who have heterogeneous beliefs about the state process underlying the asset's payoff. We propose a tractable model where agents maximize…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-03-26 Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Marcel Nutz , Xiaowei Tan

This paper characterizes the equilibrium in a continuous time financial market populated by heterogeneous agents who differ in their rate of relative risk aversion and face convex portfolio constraints. The model is studied in an…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-06-19 Tyler Abbot

Recently, the volatility associated with marginal prices has increased due to large scale integration of renewable generation. Price volatility is undesirable from a consumer perspective. To address this issue, we present a framework for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Shantanu Chakraborty , Kyri Baker , Milos Cvetkovic , Remco Verzijlbergh , Zofia Lukszo

Prudent management of insurance investment portfolios requires competent asset pricing of fixed-income assets with time-to-event contingent cash flows, such as consumer asset-backed securities (ABS). Current market pricing techniques for…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-27 Jackson P. Lautier , Vladimir Pozdnyakov , Jun Yan

In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative)…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Traian A. Pirvu , Huayue Zhang
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