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We present a Bayesian inference scheme for scaled Brownian motion, and investigate its performance on synthetic data for parameter estimation and model selection in a combined inference with fractional Brownian motion. We include the…

Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Richard D. Riley

Modeled along the truncated approach in Panigrahi (2016), selection-adjusted inference in a Bayesian regime is based on a selective posterior. Such a posterior is determined together by a generative model imposed on data and the selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-12 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

Although Bayesian variable selection methods have been intensively studied, their routine use in practice has not caught up with their non-Bayesian counterparts such as Lasso, likely due to difficulties in both computations and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Minsuk Shin , Jun S Liu

Crossing of fitted conditional quantiles is a prevalent problem for quantile regression models. We propose a new Bayesian modelling framework that penalises multiple quantile regression functions toward the desired non-crossing space. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 David Kohns , Tibor Szendrei

Bayesian optimization works effectively optimizing parameters in black-box problems. However, this method did not work for high-dimensional parameters in limited trials. Parameters can be efficiently explored by nonlinearly embedding them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Shoki Miyagawa , Atsuyoshi Yano , Naoko Sawada , Isamu Ogawa

Macroeconomists using large datasets often face the choice of working with either a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) or a factor model. In this paper, we develop methods for combining the two using a subspace shrinkage prior. Subspace…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-19 Florian Huber , Gary Koop

Bayesian matrix factorization (BMF) is a powerful tool for producing low-rank representations of matrices and for predicting missing values and providing confidence intervals. Scaling up the posterior inference for massive-scale matrices is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-28 Xiangju Qin , Paul Blomstedt , Eemeli Leppäaho , Pekka Parviainen , Samuel Kaski

The widespread adoption of randomized controlled trials (A/B Tests) for decision-making has introduced a pervasive "Winner's Curse": experiments selected for launch often exhibit upwardly biased effect estimates and invalid confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Richard Mudd , Abbas Zaidi , Rina Friedberg , Ilya Gorbachev , Anchal Choubey , Houssam Nassif

Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a powerful framework for enhancing statistical estimates by combining limited gold-standard data with machine learning (ML) predictions. While prior work has demonstrated PPI's benefits for individual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-10 Sida Li , Nikolaos Ignatiadis

In this paper, the use of the Generalized Beta Mixture (GBM) and Horseshoe distributions as priors in the Bayesian Compressive Sensing framework is proposed. The distributions are considered in a two-layer hierarchical model, making the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-11-11 Zahra Sabetsarvestani , Hamidreza Amindavar

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

In this work, we give a ${\rm poly}(d,k)$ time and sample algorithm for efficiently learning the parameters of a mixture of $k$ spherical distributions in $d$ dimensions. Unlike all previous methods, our techniques apply to heavy-tailed…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Alkis Kalavasis , Pravesh K. Kothari , Shuchen Li , Manolis Zampetakis

We investigate predictive densities for multivariate normal models with unknown mean vectors and known covariance matrices. Bayesian predictive densities based on shrinkage priors often have complex representations, although they are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-08 Michiko Okudo , Fumiyasu Komaki

In this paper, we apply shrinkage strategies to estimate regression coefficients efficiently for the high-dimensional multiple regression model, where the number of samples is smaller than the number of predictors. We assume in the sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-19 B. Yuzbasi , M. Arashi , S. E. Ahmed

Block-sparse regularization is already well-known in active thermal imaging and is used for multiple measurement based inverse problems. The main bottleneck of this method is the choice of regularization parameters which differs for each…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Samim Ahmadi , Jan Christian Hauffen , Linh Kästner , Peter Jung , Giuseppe Caire , Mathias Ziegler

This paper proposes a class of asymmetric priors to perform Bayesian wavelet shrinkage in the standard nonparametric regression model with Gaussian error. The priors are composed by mixtures of a point mass function at zero and one of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Alex Rodrigo dos Santos Sousa

In various applications, we deal with high-dimensional positive-valued data that often exhibits sparsity. This paper develops a new class of continuous global-local shrinkage priors tailored to analyzing gamma-distributed observations where…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Yasuyuki Hamura , Takahiro Onizuka , Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Use of continuous shrinkage priors -- with a "spike" near zero and heavy-tails towards infinity -- is an increasingly popular approach to induce sparsity in parameter estimates. When the parameters are only weakly identified by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Akihiko Nishimura , Marc A. Suchard

Bayesian hierarchical models are commonly employed for inference in count datasets, as they account for multiple levels of variation by incorporating prior distributions for parameters at different levels. Examples include Beta-Binomial,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-04 Yuexi Wang , Nicholas G. Polson