Related papers: Bayesian Approach for Parameter Estimation of Cont…
Standard maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations are not robust to perturbations in the continuous-in-time data. In this paper, we give a rather elementary explanation of this…
Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…
We consider Bayesian tensor vector autoregressions (TVARs) in which the VAR coefficients are arranged as a three-dimensional array or tensor, and this coefficient tensor is parameterized using a low-rank CP decomposition. We develop a…
Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to…
We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…
Many real-world systems modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) involve unknown parameters that must be estimated from limited, noisy system observations. While typically assumed to be constants, some of these unobserved…
In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…
In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…
We propose a fast inference method for Bayesian nonlinear support vector machines that leverages stochastic variational inference and inducing points. Our experiments show that the proposed method is faster than competing Bayesian…
Latent variable models are powerful tools for modeling complex phenomena involving in particular partially observed data, unobserved variables or underlying complex unknown structures. Inference is often difficult due to the latent…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
We develop a fast method for optimally designing experiments in the context of statistical seismic source inversion. In particular, we efficiently compute the optimal number and locations of the receivers or seismographs. The seismic source…
Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…
For a long investment time horizon, it is preferable to rebalance the portfolio weights at intermediate times. This necessitates a multi-period market model in which portfolio optimization is usually done through dynamic programming.…
Bayesian analysis is a framework for parameter estimation that applies even in uncertainty regimes where the commonly used local (frequentist) analysis based on the Cram\'er-Rao bound is not well defined. In particular, it applies when no…
This paper proposes factor stochastic volatility models with skew error distributions. The generalized hyperbolic skew t-distribution is employed for common-factor processes and idiosyncratic shocks. Using a Bayesian sparsity modeling…
We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case…
Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve…