Related papers: Bayesian Approach for Parameter Estimation of Cont…
We consider discrete time models for asset prices with a stationary volatility process. We aim at estimating the multivariate density of this process at a set of consecutive time instants. A Fourier type deconvolution kernel density…
We propose spectral methods for long-term forecasting of temporal signals stemming from linear and nonlinear quasi-periodic dynamical systems. For linear signals, we introduce an algorithm with similarities to the Fourier transform but…
Modeling turbulent flows by a random Fourier decomposition is a classical procedure in order to use simplified models of turbulence in heat transport and other applications. We carefully investigate the Fourier time series of…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
We consider a parameter estimation problem to determine the viscosity $\nu$ of a stochastically perturbed 2D Navier-Stokes system. We derive several different classes of estimators based on the first $N$ Fourier modes of a single sample…
Parametric estimation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been a subject of intense studies already for several decades. The Heston model for instance is driven by two coupled SDEs and is often used in financial mathematics for…
We compare the accuracy, precision and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modelling and…
The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…
We study the strong approximation of a rough volatility model, in which the log-volatility is given by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Hurst parameter $H<1/2$. Our methods are based on an equidistant discretization of the…
Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…
We propose a new method for the estimation of a semiparametric tempered stable L\'{e}vy model. The estimation procedure combines iteratively an approximate semiparametric method of moment estimator, Truncated Realized Quadratic Variations…
In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…
In a financial market model, we consider the variance-optimal semi-static hedging of a given contingent claim, a generalization of the classic variance-optimal hedging. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error…
Parameter estimation is one of the most important tasks in statistics, and is key to helping people understand the distribution behind a sample of observations. Traditionally parameter estimation is done either by closed-form solutions…
We compare systematically several classes of stochastic volatility models of stock market fluctuations. We show that the long-time return distribution is either Gaussian or develops a power-law tail, while the short-time return distribution…
We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…
This paper studies the threshold estimation of a TAR model when the underlying threshold parameter is a random variable. It is shown that the Bayesian estimator is consistent and its limit distribution is expressed in terms of a limit…
We present a method for estimating parameters in stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks by fitting steady-state distributions using Wasserstein distances. We simulate a reaction network at different parameter settings and train…
We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…