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We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Empirical studies in various social sciences often involve categorical outcomes with inherent ordering, such as self-evaluations of subjective well-being and self-assessments in health domains. While ordered choice models, such as the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-08 Riccardo Di Francesco

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-03 Juha Karvanen

There has been considerable recent interest in estimating heterogeneous causal effects. In this paper, we study conditional average partial causal effects (CAPCE) to reveal the heterogeneity of causal effects with continuous treatment. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Yuta Kawakami , Manabu Kuroki , Jin Tian

We propose Causal Interaction Trees for identifying subgroups of participants that have enhanced treatment effects using observational data. We extend the Classification and Regression Tree algorithm by using splitting criteria that focus…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jiabei Yang , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson

Uncovering causal effects in multiple treatment setting at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. Comprehensive machine learning approaches to causal effect estimation allow to use a single causal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-17 Michael Lechner , Jana Mareckova

We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changes-in-changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-13 Martin Huber , Mark Schelker , Anthony Strittmatter

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

In the causal adjustment setting, variable selection techniques based on either the outcome or treatment allocation model can result in the omission of confounders or the inclusion of spurious variables in the propensity score. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Masoud Asgharian , David A. Stephens

Inferring individualised treatment effects from observational data can unlock the potential for targeted interventions. It is, however, hard to infer these effects from observational data. One major problem that can arise is covariate shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Damian Machlanski , Spyros Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

In this paper, we propose a data-adaptive empirical likelihood-based approach for treatment effect estimation and inference, which overcomes the obstacle of the traditional empirical likelihood-based approaches in the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Wei Liang , Ying Yan

The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

Researchers increasingly leverage movement across multiple treatments to estimate causal effects. While these "mover regressions" are often motivated by a linear constant-effects model, it is not clear what they capture under weaker…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-19 Peter Hull

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

We propose a method for estimation and inference for bounds for heterogeneous causal effect parameters in general sample selection models where the treatment can affect whether an outcome is observed and no exclusion restrictions are…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-29 Phillip Heiler

The purpose of this work is to improve the efficiency in estimating the average causal effect (ACE) on the survival scale where right-censoring exists and high-dimensional covariate information is available. We propose new estimators using…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-29 Ran Dai , Cheng Zheng , Mei-Jie Zhang

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Limor Gultchin , Matt J. Kusner , Varun Kanade , Ricardo Silva

What is the ideal regression (if any) for estimating average causal effects? We study this question in the setting of discrete covariates, deriving expressions for the finite-sample variance of various stratification estimators. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 P. Richard Hahn , Andrew Herren

Identifying covariates that modify treatment effects is a central problem in causal inference. Yet existing data-adaptive procedures do not provide finite-sample control over the expected number of false discoveries, risking spurious…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Omar Melikechi

Estimators that weight observed outcomes to form effect estimates have a long tradition. Their outcome weights are widely used in established procedures, such as checking covariate balance, characterizing target populations, or detecting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-13 Michael C. Knaus
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