Related papers: Deep Uncertainty Quantification: A Machine Learnin…

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

Some applications of deep learning require not only to provide accurate results but also to quantify the amount of confidence in their prediction. The management of an electric power grid is one of these cases: to avoid risky scenarios,…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian…

The use of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models in risk-based decision-making has attracted extensive attention with broad applications in medical, finance, manufacturing, and quality control. To mitigate prediction-related risks in decision…

Regional rainfall forecasting is an important issue in hydrology and meteorology. This paper aims to design an integrated tool by applying various machine learning algorithms, especially the state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms…

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product…

Deep learning models are extensively used in various safety critical applications. Hence these models along with being accurate need to be highly reliable. One way of achieving this is by quantifying uncertainty. Bayesian methods for UQ…

The increasing installation rate of wind power poses great challenges to the global power system. In order to ensure the reliable operation of the power system, it is necessary to accurately forecast the wind speed and power of the wind…

Data-driven model identification strategies can be used to obtain phenomenological models that capture the temporal evolution of observable data. While it is usually straightforward to obtain such a model from time series data, for instance…

Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems. The growing risk of wildfires increases the demand for forecasting models that are not only accurate but also reliable.…

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by…

We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…

Numerical weather forecasting using high-resolution physical models often requires extensive computational resources on supercomputers, which diminishes their wide usage in most real-life applications. As a remedy, applying deep learning…

Machine learning (ML) has often been applied to space weather (SW) problems in recent years. SW originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the systems between the Sun and…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency…

OOD detection has become more pertinent with advances in network design and increased task complexity. Identifying which parts of the data a given network is misclassifying has become as valuable as the network's overall performance. We can…

We present a significantly-improved data-driven global weather forecasting framework using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to forecast several basic atmospheric variables on a global grid. New developments in this framework…

Running high-resolution physical models is computationally expensive and essential for many disciplines. Agriculture, transportation, and energy are sectors that depend on high-resolution weather models, which typically consume many hours…

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We…

AI deployed in the real-world should be capable of autonomously adapting to novelties encountered after deployment. Yet, in the field of continual learning, the reliance on novelty and labeling oracles is commonplace albeit unrealistic.…