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This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-05 Charles F. Manski

Sequential experiments are often characterized by an exploration-exploitation tradeoff that is captured by the multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework. This framework has been studied and applied, typically when at each time period feedback is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Yonatan Gur , Ahmadreza Momeni

Many sequential decision making problems can be formulated as an adaptive submodular maximization problem. However, most of existing studies in this field focus on pool-based setting, where one can pick items in any order, and there have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-18 Shaojie Tang , Jing Yuan

We consider a multi-hypothesis testing problem involving a K-armed bandit. Each arm's signal follows a distribution from a vector exponential family. The actual parameters of the arms are unknown to the decision maker. The decision maker…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Gayathri R Prabhu , Srikrishna Bhashyam , Aditya Gopalan , Rajesh Sundaresan

Many classification problems require decisions among a large number of competing classes. These tasks, however, are not handled well by general purpose learning methods and are usually addressed in an ad-hoc fashion. We suggest a general…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Yair Even-Zohar , Dan Roth

Sequential decision making under uncertainty is studied in a mixed observability domain. The goal is to maximize the amount of information obtained on a partially observable stochastic process under constraints imposed by a fully observable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-03-16 Mikko Lauri , Risto Ritala

Most clinical prediction studies are developed from retrospective cohorts and reported as if all patient information were observed at once. In practice, clinicians face a more consequential question: \emph{when is there already enough…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Hui-Mean Foo , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

The Rashomon effect describes the phenomenon where multiple models trained on the same data produce identical predictions while differing in which features they rely on internally. This effect has been studied extensively in classification…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Dennis Gross , Jørn Eirik Betten , Helge Spieker

Health-related data is noisy and stochastic in implying the true physiological states of patients, limiting information contained in single-moment observations for sequential clinical decision making. We model patient-clinician interactions…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Luchen Li , Matthieu Komorowski , Aldo A. Faisal

Counterfactuals have become a popular technique nowadays for interacting with black-box machine learning models and understanding how to change a particular instance to obtain a desired outcome from the model. However, most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Philip Naumann , Eirini Ntoutsi

Given a malfunctioning system, sequential diagnosis aims at identifying the root cause of the failure in terms of abnormally behaving system components. As initial system observations usually do not suffice to deterministically pin down…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-08 Patrick Rodler , Wolfgang Schmid

In this work, we study sequential choice bandits with feedback. We propose bandit algorithms for a platform that personalizes users' experience to maximize its rewards. For each action directed to a given user, the platform is given a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-06 Anshuka Rangi , Massimo Franceschetti , Long Tran-Thanh

We study the offline data-driven sequential decision making problem in the framework of Markov decision process (MDP). In order to enhance the generalizability and adaptivity of the learned policy, we propose to evaluate each policy by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-11 Zhengling Qi , Peng Liao

The stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a common model for sequential decision problems. In the standard setup, a decision maker has to choose at every instant between several competing arms, each of them provides a scalar random…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-27 Asaf Cassel , Shie Mannor , Assaf Zeevi

The problem of making sequential decisions in unknown probabilistic environments is studied. In cycle $t$ action $y_t$ results in perception $x_t$ and reward $r_t$, where all quantities in general may depend on the complete history. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Marcus Hutter

This paper studies algorithmic decision-making in the presence of strategic individual behaviors, where an ML model is used to make decisions about human agents and the latter can adapt their behavior strategically to improve their future…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Tian Xie , Xueru Zhang

Selective labels are a common feature of consequential decision-making applications, referring to the lack of observed outcomes under one of the possible decisions. This paper reports work in progress on learning decision policies in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Dennis Wei

We consider the classical problem of sequential resource allocation where a decision maker must repeatedly divide a budget between several resources, each with diminishing returns. This can be recast as a specific stochastic optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-17 Xavier Fontaine , Shie Mannor , Vianney Perchet

In many areas of medicine, security, and life sciences, we want to allocate limited resources to different sources in order to detect extreme values. In this paper, we study an efficient way to allocate these resources sequentially under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Alexandra Carpentier , Michal Valko

We consider the batch (off-line) policy learning problem in the infinite horizon Markov Decision Process. Motivated by mobile health applications, we focus on learning a policy that maximizes the long-term average reward. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Peng Liao , Zhengling Qi , Runzhe Wan , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy