Related papers: Approximate State Space Modelling of Unobserved Fr…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…
State-space models are ubiquitous in the statistical literature since they provide a flexible and interpretable framework for analyzing many time series. In most practical applications, the state-space model is specified through a…
We consider a time series model involving a fractional stochastic component, whose integration order can lie in the stationary/invertible or nonstationary regions and be unknown, and an additive deterministic component consisting of a…
This paper considers both the least squares and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for the recently proposed scalable ARMA model, a parametric infinite-order vector AR model, and their asymptotic normality is also established. It makes…
The EM algorithm is a powerful tool for maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. In practice, the calculations required for the EM algorithm are often intractable. We review numerous methods to circumvent this intractability, all of…
Transferring information from observations of a dynamical system to estimate the fixed parameters and unobserved states of a system model can be formulated as the evaluation of a discrete time path integral in model state space. The…
The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful computational technique for finding the maximum likelihood estimates for parametric models when the data are not fully observed. The EM is best suited for situations where the…
We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the…
Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…
This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…
We develop a generalization of unobserved components models that allows for a wide range of long-run dynamics by modelling the permanent component as a fractionally integrated process. The model does not require stationarity and can be cast…
We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations,…
In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…
This paper proposes a new Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to perform online estimation in the context of state space models when either the transition density of the latent state or the conditional likelihood of an observation given a…
State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…
In contrast to the popular Cox model which presents a multiplicative covariate effect specification on the time to event hazards, the semiparametric additive risks model (ARM) offers an attractive additive specification, allowing for direct…
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a popular choice for learning latent variable models. Variants of the EM have been initially introduced, using incremental updates to scale to large datasets, and using Monte Carlo (MC)…
A non linear regression approach which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a latent process, allowing various polynomial regression models to be activated preferentially and smoothly, is introduced in this paper. The model…
The Mat\'ern covariance model is ubiquitous in spatial modelling, but there is no default choice for spatio-temporal modelling. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed ``diffusion-based'' extension of the spatial Mat\'ern…