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The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Haixu Wang

Gaussian processes are the leading class of distributions on random functions, but they suffer from well known issues including difficulty scaling and inflexibility with respect to certain shape constraints (such as nonnegativity). Here we…

Temporal networks allow representing connections between objects while incorporating the temporal dimension. While static network models can capture unchanging topological regularities, they often fail to model the effects associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Bo Kang , Tijl De Bie , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

Deep neural network models represent the state-of-the-art methodologies for natural language processing. Here we build on top of these methodologies to incorporate temporal information and model how to review data changes with time.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Kostadin Cvejoski , Ramses J. Sanchez , Bogdan Georgiev , Christian Bauckhage , Cesar Ojeda

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-20 Alessio Sancetta

Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-26 Shuai Xiao , Junchi Yan , Stephen M. Chu , Xiaokang Yang , Hongyuan Zha

Research showed that, the information transmitted in biological neurons is encoded in the instants of successive action potentials or their firing rate. In addition to that, in-vivo operation of the neuron makes measurement difficult and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-01-10 Ozgur Doruk , Kechen Zhang

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

In this paper, we perform deep neural networks for learning $\psi$-weakly dependent processes. Such weak-dependence property includes a class of weak dependence conditions such as mixing, association,$\cdots$ and the setting considered here…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-02 William Kengne , Wade Modou

This paper provides a formalism for an important class of causal inference problems inspired by user-advertiser interaction in online advertiser. Then this formalism is specialized to an extension of temporal marked point processes and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-07 Alexander Merkov , David Rohde

Sparse sequences of neural spikes are posited to underlie aspects of working memory, motor production, and learning. Discovering these sequences in an unsupervised manner is a longstanding problem in statistical neuroscience. Promising…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Alex H. Williams , Anthony Degleris , Yixin Wang , Scott W. Linderman

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

The Hawkes process is a self-exciting sample point process. It has wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. With the development of storage technology, data-driven models are attracting…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Haixu Wang

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

Modeling event sequences of multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing dynamical rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 David Berghaus , Patrick Seifner , Kostadin Cvejoski , César Ojeda , Ramsés J. Sánchez

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou