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With the widespread application of causal inference, it is increasingly important to have tools which can test for the presence of causal effects in a diverse array of circumstances. In this vein we focus on the problem of testing for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-08 Jake Fawkes , Robert Hu , Robin J. Evans , Dino Sejdinovic

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

In this article, we propose a new method for the fundamental task of testing for dependence between two groups of variables. The response densities under the null hypothesis of independence and the alternative hypothesis of dependence are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-29 Yimin Kao , Brian J Reich , Howard D Bondell

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become increasingly important in many fields. In this paper we study distributions and quantiles of individual treatment effects to provide a more comprehensive and robust understanding of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Zhe Chen , Xinran Li

Establishing causality is a fundamental goal in fields like medicine and social sciences. While randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for causal inference, they are not always feasible or ethical. Observational studies can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-03 Andrew Ying

In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-28 Iavor Bojinov , Ashesh Rambachan , Neil Shephard

Comparing outcomes across treatments is essential in medicine and public policy. To do so, researchers typically estimate a set of parameters, possibly counterfactual, with each targeting a different treatment. Treatment-specific means are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Alec McClean , Yiting Li , Sunjae Bae , Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco , Iván Díaz , Wenbo Wu

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a framework that uses statistical models and decision making under uncertainty to optimise the cost and performance of a scientific experiment. Sequential BED, as opposed to static BED, considers the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-23 Steven Kleinegesse , Christopher Drovandi , Michael U. Gutmann

A very classical problem in statistics is to test the stochastic superiority of one distribution to another. However, many existing approaches are developed for independent samples and, moreover, do not take censored data into account. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-19 Dennis Dobler , Kathrin Möllenhoff

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

Heterogeneous treatment effects can be very important in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. Heightened risks or enhanced benefits may exist for particular subsets of study subjects. When the heterogeneous treatment effects are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Richard A. Berk , Matthew Olson , Andreas Buja , Aurelie Ouss

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J Ross

With the emergence and spread of infectious diseases with pandemic potential, such as COVID- 19, the urgency for vaccine development have led to unprecedented compressed and accelerated schedules that shortened the standard development…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-22 Jiayue Wang , Ben Boukai

Sequential hypothesis testing is a desirable decision making strategy in any time sensitive scenario. Compared with fixed sample-size testing, sequential testing is capable of achieving identical probability of error requirements using less…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-17 Diyan Teng , Emre Ertin

When a clinical trial is subject to a series of interim analyses as a result of which the study may be terminated or modified, final frequentist analyses need to take account of the design used. Failure to do so may result in overstated…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-28 John Whitehead , Yasin Desai , Thomas Jaki

Traditional accelerated life test plans are typically based on optimizing the C-optimality for minimizing the variance of an interested quantile of the lifetime distribution. The traditional methods rely on some specified planning values…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-04 Lu Lu , I-Chen Lee , Yili Hong

In cancer biomarker development, a key objective is to evaluate whether a new biomarker, when combined with an established one, improves early cancer detection compared to using the established biomarker alone. Incremental value is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Indrila Ganguly , Ying Huang

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread…