Related papers: Constructing copulas from shock models with imprec…
Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…
We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian…
This paper develops a general inferential framework for discrete copulas on finite supports in any dimension. The copula of a multivariate discrete distribution is defined as Csiszar's I-projection (i.e., the minimum-Kullback-Leibler…
Model selection is an important activity in modern data analysis and the conventional Bayesian approach to this problem involves calculation of marginal likelihoods for different models, together with diagnostics which examine specific…
We introduce new estimates and tests of independence in copula models with unknown margins using $\phi$-divergences and the duality technique. The asymptotic laws of the estimates and the test statistics are established both when the…
The spatial random-effects model is flexible in modeling spatial covariance functions, and is computationally efficient for spatial prediction via fixed rank kriging. However, the success of this model depends on an appropriate set of basis…
In competing risks models, the joint distribution of the event times is not identifiable even when the margins are fully known, which has been referred to as the "identifiability crisis in competing risks analysis" (Crowder, 1991). We model…
Bi-factor and second-order models based on copulas are proposed for item response data, where the items can be split into non-overlapping groups such that there is a homogeneous dependence within each group. Our general models include the…
We develop factor copula models for analysing the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric…
Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced…
This article extends the literature on copulas with discrete or continuous marginals to the case where some of the marginals are a mixture of discrete and continuous components. We do so by carefully defining the likelihood as the density…
This paper introduces a class of copula models for spatial data, based on multivariate Pareto-mixture distributions. We explore the tail properties of these models, demonstrating their ability to capture both tail dependence and asymptotic…
Conditional copulas are flexible statistical tools that couple joint conditional and marginal conditional distributions. In a linear regression setting with more than one covariate and two dependent outcomes, we propose the use of additive…
We construct by using B-spline functions a class of copulas that includes the Bernstein copulas arising in Baker's distributions. The range of correlation of the B-spline copulas is examined, and the Frechet--Hoeffding upper bound is proved…
Fractional calculus provides a rigorous mathematical framework to describe anomalous stochastic processes by generalizing the notion of classical differential equations to their fractional-order counterparts. By introducing the fractional…
Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…
In modern engineering, physical processes are modelled and analysed using advanced computer simulations, such as finite element models. Furthermore, concepts of reliability analysis and robust design are becoming popular, hence, making…
For multivariate distributions in the domain of attraction of a max-stable distribution, the tail copula and the stable tail dependence function are equivalent ways to capture the dependence in the upper tail. The empirical versions of…
A bivariate distribution with continuous margins can be uniquely decomposed via a copula and its marginal distributions. We consider the problem of estimating the copula function and adopt a Bayesian approach. On the space of copula…
This paper demonstrates that, under a particular convention, the convex functions that characterise the phi divergences also generate Archimedean copulas in at least two dimensions. As a special case, we develop the family of Archimedean…