Related papers: Observed lifespan differential - global trends, po…
This report provides a visual examination of Covid-19 case and death data. In particular, it shows that country specific differences can too a large extend be explained by two easily interpreted parameters. Namely, the delay between…
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a…
Human population is at the centre of research on global environmental change. On the one hand, population dynamics influence the environment and the global climate system through consumption-based carbon emissions. On the other hand, health…
When longitudinal outcomes are evaluated in mortal populations, their non-existence after death complicates the analysis and its causal interpretation. Where popular methods often merge longitudinal outcome and survival into one scale or…
Demographic transition, characterized by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernization. While typical patterns of fertility decline are observed in Western countries, their applicability to other…
A single social phenomenon (such as crime, unemployment or birth rate) can be observed through temporal series corresponding to units at different levels (cities, regions, countries...). Units at a given local level may follow a collective…
At the physiological level, aging is neither rigid nor unchangeable. Instead, the molecular and mechanisms driving aging are sufficiently plastic that a variety of diverse interventions--dietary, pharmaceutical, and genetic--have been…
Following the recent publication of our book on Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-65142-2) we provide this…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
A fundamental question in aging research concerns the demographic trajectories at the highest ages, especially for supercentenarians (persons aged 110 or more). We wish to demonstrate that the Weon model enables scientists to describe the…
Indirect information on population size, like pellet counts or volunteer counts, is the main source of information in most ecological studies and applied population management situations. Often, such observations are treaded as if they were…
This paper investigates the impacts of major natural resource discoveries since 1960 on life expectancy in the nations that they were resource poor prior to the discoveries. Previous literature explains the relation between nations wealth…
In many developed countries, human life expectancy has doubled over the last 180 years from ~40 to ~80 years. Underlying this great advance is a change in how we age, yet our understanding of this change remains limited. Here we present a…
Understanding the relationship between population dynamics and disease-specific mortality is central to evidence-based health policy. This study introduces two novel metrics, PoPDivergence and PoPStat, one to quantify the difference between…
Distinguishability and, by extension, observability are key properties of dynamical systems. Establishing these properties is challenging, especially when no analytical model is available and they are to be inferred directly from…