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We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are…
It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect.…
Large language models are highly sensitive to prompt wording. However, popular automatic prompt search methods, including InstructZero, often degrade under distribution shift and adversarial evaluation because they optimize expected…
We consider asset price models whose dynamics are described by linear functions of the (time extended) signature of a primary underlying process, which can range from a (market-inferred) Brownian motion to a general multidimensional…
Semi-Markov model is one of the most general models for stochastic dynamic systems. This paper deals with a two-person zero-sum game for semi-Markov processes. We focus on the expected discounted payoff criterion with state-action-dependent…
We consider the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with a single asset that can be held long or short. Due to the presence of transaction costs, maximizing the immediate reward at each period may prove detrimental, as frequent…
We provide simple models for the utility function (or psychology) of an actor trading a multitude of goods for money. In this framework, money has no intrinsic consumption value, but is required as a medium of exchange. A collection of such…
This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete-time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that…
The exchange-driven growth model describes the mean field kinetics of a population of composite particles (clusters) subject to pairwise exchange interactions. Exchange in this context means that upon interaction of two clusters, one loses…
Recently, incomplete-market techniques have been used to develop a model applicable to credit default swaps (CDSs) with results obtained that are quite different from those obtained using the market-standard model. This article makes use of…
This paper presents an axiomatic scheme for interest rate models in discrete time. We take a pricing kernel approach, which builds in the arbitrage-free property and provides a link to equilibrium economics. We require that the pricing…
The aim of this paper is to present a dual-term structure model of interest rate derivatives in order to solve the two hardest problems in financial modeling: the exact volatility calibration of the entire swaption matrix, and the…
The non-gaussianity of processes observed in financial markets and relatively good performance of gaussian models can be reconciled by replacing the Brownian motion with Levy processes whose Levy densities decay as exp(-lambda|x|) or…
Most modern financial markets use a continuous double auction mechanism to store and match orders and facilitate trading. In this paper we develop a microscopic dynamical statistical model for the continuous double auction under the…
This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our…
Zero-determinant strategies are memory-one strategies in repeated games which unilaterally enforce linear relations between expected payoffs of players. Recently, the concept of zero-determinant strategies was extended to the class of…
We investigate high frequency price dynamics in foreign exchange market using data from Reuters information system (the dataset has been provided to us by Ols en & Associates). In our analysis we show that a na\"ive approach to the…
The Black-Scholes theory of option pricing has been considered for many years as an important but very approximate zeroth-order description of actual market behavior. We generalize the functional form of the diffusion of these systems and…
In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem where the market value of a product is linear in its observed features plus some market noise. Products are sold one at a time, and only a binary response indicating success or…