Related papers: On a flexible construction of a negative binomial …

A method of calculating probability values from a system of marginal constraints is presented. Previous systems for finding the probability of a single attribute have either made an independence assumption concerning the evidence or have…

Generators of Markov processes on a countable state space can be represented as finite or infinite matrices. One key property is that the off-diagonal entries corresponding to jump rates of the Markov process are non-negative. Here we…

We continue development of the theory of Markov systems initiated in \cite{Wer1}. In this paper, we introduce fundamental Markov systems associated with random dynamical systems and show that the proof of the uniqueness and empiricalness of…

We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…

We study the stationary measures for variants of the Porous Medium Model in dimension 1. These are exclusion processes that belong to the class of kinetically constrained models, in which an exchange can occur between $x$ and $x+1$ only if…

Non-positive Markov approximations are sometimes used to describe the dynamics of qubits in weak interaction with suitable environments; the appearance of negative probabilities is avoided by assuming that the transient regime eliminates…

A new family of tree-structured Markov random fields for a vector of discrete counting random variables is introduced. According to the characteristics of the family, the marginal distributions of the Markov random fields are all Poisson…

We introduce a new model for sums of exchangeable binary random variables. The proposed distribution is an approximation to the exact distributional form, and relies on the theory of completely monotone functions and the Laplace transform…

Copulas are a powerful tool for modeling multivariate distributions as they allow to separately estimate the univariate marginal distributions and the joint dependency structure. However, known parametric copulas offer limited flexibility…

We consider the problem of estimation in Hidden Markov models with finite state space and nonparametric emission distributions. Efficient estimators for the transition matrix are exhibited, and a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises result is…

We propose a generalization of the classical M/M/1 queue process. The resulting model is derived by applying fractional derivative operators to a system of difference-differential equations. This generalization includes both non-Markovian…

Probabilistic circuits compute multilinear polynomials that represent multivariate probability distributions. They are tractable models that support efficient marginal inference. However, various polynomial semantics have been considered in…

We address the problem of Lyapunov function construction for a class of continuous-time Markov chains with affine transition rates, typically encountered in stochastic chemical kinetics. Following an optimization approach, we take advantage…

Phylogenetic invariants are certain polynomials in the joint probability distribution of a Markov model on a phylogenetic tree. Such polynomials are of theoretical interest in the field of algebraic statistics and they are also of practical…

This paper develops a decision algorithm for weak bisimulation on Markov Automata (MA). For that purpose, different notions of vanishing state (a concept known from the area of Generalised Stochastic Petri Nets) are defined. Vanishing…

It has been well known for some time that for strictly stationary Markov chains that are ``reversible'', that special symmetry provides special extra features in the mathematical theory. This paper here is primarily a purely expository…

We consider a class of discrete time Markov chains with state space [0,1] and the following dynamics. At each time step, first the direction of the next transition is chosen at random with probability depending on the current location. Then…

For downward skip-free continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers stopped at zero, existence of a quasi-stationary distribution is studied. The scale function for these processes is introduced and the boundary is classified by a…

We propose an adaptive estimator for the stationary distribution of a bifurcating Markov Chain on $\mathbb R^d$. Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC for short) are a class of stochastic processes indexed by regular binary trees. A kernel…

To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors in vehicle queues, a namely Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process…