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Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Causal decision making (CDM) based on machine learning has become a routine part of business. Businesses algorithmically target offers, incentives, and recommendations to affect consumer behavior. Recently, we have seen an acceleration of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-01 Carlos Fernández-Loría , Foster Provost

Causal machine learning (Causal ML) aims to answer "what if" questions using machine learning algorithms, making it a promising tool for high-stakes decision-making. Yet, empirical evaluation practices in Causal ML remain limited. Existing…

ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Damian Machlanski , Spyridon Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

In this paper, we present a data-driven model for estimating optimal rework policies in manufacturing systems. We consider a single production stage within a multistage, lot-based system that allows for optional rework steps. While the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Philipp Schwarz , Oliver Schacht , Sven Klaassen , Daniel Grünbaum , Sebastian Imhof , Martin Spindler

Understanding interaction effects among variables is important for regression modeling in various applications. The conventional approach of quantifying interactions as the product of variables often lacks clear interpretability, especially…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Kexin Xie , Xinwei Deng

Traditional causal inference approaches leverage observational study data to estimate the difference in observed and unobserved outcomes for a potential treatment, known as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). However, CATE…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Tianhui Zhou , William E Carson , David Carlson

Testing of machine learning (ML) models is a known challenge identified by researchers and practitioners alike. Unfortunately, current practice for ML model testing prioritizes testing for model performance, while often neglecting the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Rachel Brower-Sinning , Grace A. Lewis , Sebastían Echeverría , Ipek Ozkaya

This study utilizes a simulated dataset to establish Python code for Double Machine Learning (DML) using Anaconda's Jupyter Notebook and the DML software package from GitHub. The research focuses on causal inference experiments for both…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-28 Shunxin Yao

Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Xinyi Wang , Wenhu Chen , Michael Saxon , William Yang Wang

In the last decade, machine learning techniques have gained popularity for estimating causal effects. One machine learning approach that can be used for estimating an average treatment effect is Double/debiased machine learning (DML)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Daniele Ballinari , Nora Bearth

Variable selection poses a significant challenge in causal modeling, particularly within the social sciences, where constructs often rely on inter-related factors such as age, socioeconomic status, gender, and race. Indeed, it has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Jingzhou Huang , Jiuyao Lu , Alexander Williams Tolbert

We present unexpected findings from a large-scale benchmark study evaluating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation algorithms, i.e., CATE models. By running 16 modern CATE models on 12 datasets and 43,200 sampled variants…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Haining Yu , Yizhou Sun

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Large Language Models (LLMs) and causal learning each hold strong potential for clinical decision making (CDM). However, their synergy remains poorly understood, largely due to the lack of systematic benchmarks evaluating their integration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Linna Wang , Zhixuan You , Qihui Zhang , Jiunan Wen , Ji Shi , Yimin Chen , Yusen Wang , Fanqi Ding , Ziliang Feng , Li Lu

To alleviate the cost of regression testing in continuous integration (CI), a large number of machine learning-based (ML-based) test case prioritization techniques have been proposed. However, it is yet unknown how they perform under the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Yifan Zhao , Dan Hao , Lu Zhang

Specifying data requirements for machine learning (ML) software systems remains a challenge in requirements engineering (RE). This vision paper explores causal modelling as an RE activity that allows the systematic integration of prior…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-04-24 Hans-Martin Heyn , Yufei Mao , Roland Weiss , Eric Knauss

Collaborative machine learning (ML) is an appealing paradigm to build high-quality ML models by training on the aggregated data from many parties. However, these parties are only willing to share their data when given enough incentives,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Rachael Hwee Ling Sim , Yehong Zhang , Mun Choon Chan , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

Model evaluation is a critical component in supervised machine learning classification analyses. Traditional metrics do not currently incorporate case difficulty. This renders the classification results unbenchmarked for generalization.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Adrienne Kline , Joon Lee