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Significant wave height is one of the most important parameters characterizing ocean waves, and accurate numerical ocean wave forecasting is crucial for coastal protection and shipping. However, due to the randomness and nonlinearity of the…
Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…
Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due…
Understanding convective processes leading to severe weather hazards within Mediterranean cyclones is relevant for operational forecasters, insurance industry, and enhancing societal preparedness. In this work we examine the climatological…
Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…
In moldable job scheduling, we are provided $m$ identical machines and $n$ jobs that can be executed on a variable number of machines. The execution time of each job depends on the number of machines assigned to execute that job. For the…
In this paper we present the characterization of all the principal meteorological parameters (wind speed and direction, pressure, absolute and potential temperature) extended over 25 km from the ground and over two years (2003 and 2004)…
The Mediterranean is strongly affected by Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs), sometimes leading to negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate…
An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…
Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…
Time Series Forecasting (TSF) faces persistent challenges in modeling intricate temporal dependencies across different scales. Despite recent advances leveraging different decomposition operations and novel architectures based on CNN, MLP…
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved remarkable success in universal forecasting by leveraging large-scale pretraining on diverse time series data. Complementing this progress, incorporating frequency-domain…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
Clouds are important components of the atmosphere. Since it is usually not possible to treat them as ensembles of huge numbers of particles, parameterizations on the basis of averaged quantities (mass and/or number concentration) must be…
Statistical post-processing techniques are now widely used to correct systematic biases and errors in calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble…
Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
Demand for high-performance, robust, and safe autonomous systems has grown substantially in recent years. These objectives motivate the desire for efficient safety-theoretic reasoning that can be embedded in core decision-making tasks such…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…
Ensemble forecasting has proven over the years to be a vital tool for predicting extreme or only partially predictable weather events. In particular life-threatening weather events. Many National Meteorological Services in East Africa do…