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We describe a hierarchical Bayesian approach for inference about a parameter $\theta$ lower-bounded by $\alpha$ with uncertain $\alpha$, derive some basic identities for posterior analysis about $(\theta,\alpha)$, and provide illustrations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Éric Marchand , Theodoros Nicoleris

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

Prior information often takes the form of parameter constraints. Bayesian methods include such information through prior distributions having constrained support. By using posterior sampling algorithms, one can quantify uncertainty without…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Leo L Duan , Alexander L Young , Akihiko Nishimura , David B Dunson

Bayesian optimization works effectively optimizing parameters in black-box problems. However, this method did not work for high-dimensional parameters in limited trials. Parameters can be efficiently explored by nonlinearly embedding them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Shoki Miyagawa , Atsuyoshi Yano , Naoko Sawada , Isamu Ogawa

Many inverse problems include nuisance parameters which, while not of direct interest, are required to recover primary parameters. Structure present in these problems allows efficient optimization strategies - a well known example is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-05 Aleksandr Y. Aravkin , Tristan van Leeuwen

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

This paper analyzes a popular computational framework to solve infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, discretizing the prior and the forward model in a finite-dimensional weighted inner product space. We demonstrate the benefit of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-22 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Nathan Waniorek

In this work, we develop a Bayesian framework for solving inverse problems in which the unknown parameter belongs to a space of Radon measures taking values in a separable Hilbert space. The inherent ill-posedness of such problems is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Phuoc-Truong Huynh

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-04 T. Butler , J. D. Jakeman , T. Wildey

We address the problem of observation noise misspecification in Bayesian filtering of dynamical systems via recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference. Mis-match in tail decay between the true data generating process and an assumed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Hans Reimann , Sebastian Reich

In this paper, we propose a general framework for combining evidence of varying quality to estimate underlying binary latent variables in the presence of restrictions imposed to respect the scientific context. The resulting algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-28 Zhenke Wu , Livia Casciola-Rosen , Antony Rosen , Scott L. Zeger

We present a theory-first framework that interprets inference-time adaptation in large language models (LLMs) as online Bayesian state estimation. Rather than modeling rapid adaptation as implicit optimization or meta-learning, we formulate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Andrew Kiruluta

Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-17 Nicolas Bousquet , Mélanie Blazère , Thomas Cerbelaud

In statistical inference, a discrepancy between the parameter-to-observable map that generates the data and the parameter-to-observable map that is used for inference can lead to misspecified likelihoods and thus to incorrect estimates. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-16 Nada Cvetković , Han Cheng Lie , Harshit Bansal , Karen Veroy

Bayesian linear inverse problems aim to recover an unknown signal from noisy observations, incorporating prior knowledge. This paper analyses a data-dependent method to choose the scale parameter of a Gaussian prior. The method we study…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Maia Tienstra , Sebastian Reich

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

In this paper, the ensemble consider Kalman filter is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of uncertain parameters in nonlinear dynamic and measurement models. The ensemble Kalman filter can avoid using the Jacobian matrices and reduce…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-06-18 Tai-shan Lou , Nan-hua Chen , Hua Xiong , Ya-xi Li , Lei Wang

Conventional inverse optimization inputs a solution and finds the parameters of an optimization model that render a given solution optimal. The literature mostly focuses on inferring the objective function in linear problems when accepted…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Houra Mahmoudzadeh , Kimia Ghobadi

In this paper, we consider the multicollinearity problem in the gamma regression model when model parameters are linearly restricted. The linear restrictions are available from prior information to ensure the validity of scientific theories…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-10 Solmaz Seifollahi , Hossein Bevrani , Kaniav Kamary

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis