Related papers: Ordering the smallest claim amounts from two sets …
In this paper, we define probabilistic measures for venture portfolio performance based on individual outlier probability for each investment and the dependence across investments. This work is inspired by loan portfolio modeling against…
We prove two basic conjectures on the distribution of the smallest singular value of random n times n matrices with independent entries. Under minimal moment assumptions, we show that the smallest singular value is of order n^{-1/2}, which…
Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. X_n = a_1 X_{n-1} + ...+ a_p X_{n_p} + Y_n where the random variables Y_1, Y_2, ... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a…
A new notion of stochastic ordering is introduced to compare multivariate stochastic risk models with respect to extreme portfolio losses. In the framework of multivariate regular variation comparison criteria are derived in terms of…
We consider the problem of identifying the causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data. Unlike previous work, we keep the most general functional model but make an assumption on the unobserved exogenous…
Corresponding to $n$ independent non-negative random variables $X_1,...,X_n$, are values $M_1,...,M_n$, where each $M_i$ is the expected value of the maximum of $n$ independent copies of $X_i$. We obtain an upper bound to the expected value…
Consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of an unknown $\beta$-H\"older smooth density $p_{XY}$ at a given point, where $X$ and $Y$ are both $d$ dimensional. An infinite sequence of i.i.d.\ samples $(X_i,Y_i)$ are generated…
This paper presents a synthesis of the theories of portfolio generating functions and option pricing. The theory of portfolio generation is extended to measure the value of portfolios generated by positive C^{2,1} functions of asset prices…
We analyse the asymptotics of ruin probabilities of two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions when the initial reserves of both companies tend…
Consider the problem of drawing random variates $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ from a distribution where the marginal of each $X_i$ is specified, as well as the correlation between every pair $X_i$ and $X_j$. For given marginals, the…
The focus of a survival study is partly on the distribution of survival times, and partly on the health or quality of life of patients while they live. Health varies over time, and survival is the most basic aspect of health, so the two…
The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous…
Claim reserving primarily relies on macro-level models, with the Chain-Ladder method being the most widely adopted. These methods were heuristically developed without minimal statistical foundations, relying on oversimplified data…
Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…
This paper studies Pareto-optimal reinsurance design in a monopolistic market with multiple primary insurers and a single reinsurer, all with heterogeneous risk preferences. The risk preferences are characterized by a family of risk…
We consider the problem of ranking $N$ objects starting from a set of noisy pairwise comparisons provided by a crowd of equal workers. We assume that objects are endowed with intrinsic qualities and that the probability with which an object…
We obtain a lower asymptotic bound on the decay rate of the probability of a portfolio's underperformance against a benchmark over a large time horizon. It is assumed that the prices of the securities are governed by geometric Brownian…
We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…
Optimal reinsurance when Value at Risk and expected surplus is balanced through their ratio is studied, and it is demonstrated how results for risk-adjusted surplus can be utilized. Simplifications for large portfolios are derived, and this…
When the number of assets is larger than the sample size, the minimum variance portfolio interpolates the training data, delivering pathological zero in-sample variance. We show that if the weights of the zero variance portfolio are learned…