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We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Balázs Gerencsér , Miklós Rásonyi

Two high-level "pictures" of probability theory have emerged: one that takes as central the notion of random variable, and one that focuses on distributions and probability channels (Markov kernels). While the channel-based picture has been…

Category Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Dario Stein

A stochastic system under the influence of a stochastic environment is correlated with both present and future states of the environment. Such a system can be seen as implicitly implementing a predictive model of future environmental…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-10-05 Matthew E. Quenneville , David A. Sivak

A Markov tree is a random vector indexed by the nodes of a tree whose distribution is determined by the distributions of pairs of neighbouring variables and a list of conditional independence relations. Upon an assumption on the tails of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-05 Johan Segers

New theoretical results are presented here on the recently introduced model called mixed states MRF. Such models were introduced in the context of image motion analysis and are useful to represent information which can take both discrete…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-04-17 Bruno Cernuschi-Frias

In this paper, we provide an estimate for the solutions of reflected backward stochastic differential equations (RBSDEs) driven by a Markov chain, derive a continuous dependence property for their solutions with respect to the parameters of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-14 Zhe Yang , Dimbinirina Ramarimbahoaka , Robert J. Elliott

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

We develop a Markov process viewpoint for discrete circular distributions motivated by directional-statistics settings where angles are observed on a finite grid and evolve over time. On the $m$-point discrete circle, the cycle graph, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-04 Sourav Majumdar

With the increasing ubiquity of safety-critical autonomous systems operating in uncertain environments, there is a need for mathematical methods for formal verification of stochastic models. Towards formally verifying properties of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-18 Adrien Banse , Giannis Delimpaltadakis , Luca Laurenti , Manuel Mazo , Raphaël M. Jungers

We study the large deviations of Markov chains under the sole assumption that the state space is discrete. In particular, we do not require any of the usual irreducibility and exponential tightness assumptions. Using subadditive arguments,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Léo Daures

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Behrang Forghani

This work introduces a notion of approximate probabilistic trace equivalence for labelled Markov chains, and relates this new concept to the known notion of approximate probabilistic bisimulation. In particular this work shows that the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-04-28 Gaoang Bian , Alessandro Abate

We develope the framework of transitional conditional independence. For this we introduce transition probability spaces and transitional random variables. These constructions will generalize, strengthen and unify previous notions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Patrick Forré

This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Roy Cerqueti , Emilio De Santis

In this paper, we consider a general class of two-time-scale Markov chains whose transition rate matrix depends on a parameter $\lambda>0$. We assume that some transition rates of the Markov chain will tend to infinity as…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-10 Chen Jia

This article proposes a new generalization of the Multivariate Markov Chains (MMC) model. The future values of a Markov chain commonly depend on only the past values of the chain in an autoregressive fashion. The generalization proposed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-02 Carolina Vasconcelos , Bruno Damásio

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

We study a class of Markov chains that describe reversible stochastic dynamics of a large class of disordered mean field models at low temperatures. Our main purpose is to give a precise relation between the metastable time scales in the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2016-08-31 A. Bovier , M. Eckhoff , V. Gayrard , M. Klein

In this paper we show that any one-dimensional stationary, finite-valued Markov Random Field (MRF) is a Markov chain, without any mixing condition or condition on the support. Our proof makes use of two properties of the support $X$ of a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-12-01 Nishant Chandgotia , Guangyue Han , Brian Marcus , Tom Meyerovitch , Ronnie Pavlov

This paper extends the results of Ma, Wu, Zhang, Zhang [11] to the context of path-dependent multidimensional forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE). By path-dependent we mean that the coefficients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Kaitong Hu , Zhenjie Ren , Nizar Touzi
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