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We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility function of a stochastic differential equation driven by a gamma process. The volatility function is modelled a priori as piecewise constant, and we specify a gamma…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Denis Belomestny , Shota Gugushvili , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

The time evolution of correlation functions in statistical systems is described by an exact functional differential equation for the corresponding generating functionals. This allows for a systematic discussion of non-equilibrium physics…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2009-10-30 Christof Wetterich

A growing number of biological, soft, and active matter systems are observed to exhibit normal diffusive dynamics with a linear growth of the mean squared displacement, yet with a non-Gaussian distribution of increments. Based on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-04-12 A. V. Chechkin , F. Seno , R. Metzler , I. M. Sokolov

Many biological characteristics of evolutionary interest are not scalar variables but continuous functions. Here we use phylogenetic Gaussian process regression to model the evolution of simulated function-valued traits. Given…

Fluctuation theorems based on time-reversal have provided remarkable insight into the non-equilibrium statistics of thermodynamic quantities like heat, work, and entropy production. These types of laws impose constraints on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-30 Max Innerbichler , Andrei Militaru , Martin Frimmer , Lukas Novotny , Christoph Dellago

We consider the problem of direct data-driven predictive control for unknown stochastic linear time-invariant (LTI) systems with partial state observation. Building upon our previous research on data-driven stochastic control, this paper…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-12 Ruiqi Li , John W. Simpson-Porco , Stephen L. Smith

In this article, variational state estimation is examined from the dynamic programming perspective. This leads to two different value functional recursions depending on whether backward or forward dynamic programming is employed. The result…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Filip Tronarp

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an It\^o stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-26 Gavin A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Richard J. Boys , Chris Sherlock

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-01 Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk , Carl E. Rasmussen

We propose a Gaussian variational inference framework for the motion planning problem. In this framework, motion planning is formulated as an optimization over the distribution of the trajectories to approximate the desired trajectory…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Hongzhe Yu , Yongxin Chen

Feedforward control is essential to achieving good tracking performance in positioning systems. The aim of this paper is to develop an identification strategy for inverse models of systems with nonlinear dynamics of unknown structure using…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-10 Max van Meer , Maurice Poot , Jim Portegies , Tom Oomen

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-25 Alexandros Beskos , Joseph Dureau , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-08 Zhen Xu , Wen Dong , Sargur Srihari

Koopman theory asserts that a nonlinear dynamical system can be mapped to a linear system, where the Koopman operator advances observations of the state forward in time. However, the observable functions that map states to observations are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Jeremy Morton , Freddie D Witherden , Mykel J Kochenderfer

Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-15 Thaís C. O. da Fonseca , Viviana G. R. Lobo , Alexandra M. Schmidt

A canonical formalism and constraint analysis for discrete systems subject to a variational action principle are devised. The formalism is equivalent to the covariant formulation, encompasses global and local discrete time evolution moves…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2013-09-17 Bianca Dittrich , Philipp A Hoehn

For optimizing a non-convex function in finite dimension, a method is to add Brownian noise to a gradient descent, allowing for transitions between basins of attractions of different minimizers. To adapt this for optimization over a space…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-13 Pierre Germain , Pierre Monmarché

The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Hossein Mohammadi , Peter Challenor , Marc Goodfellow

Understanding causal relationships in multivariate time series is crucial in many scenarios, such as those dealing with financial or neurological data. Many such time series exhibit multiple regimes, i.e., consecutive temporal segments with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Abdellah Rahmani , Pascal Frossard

In this paper we define a discrete dynamical system that governs the evolution of a population of agents. From the dynamical system, a variant of Differential Evolution is derived. It is then demonstrated that, under some assumptions on the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Massimiliano Vasile , Edmondo Minisci , Marco Locatelli