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The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Nimrod Megiddo

Choices based on observational data depend on beliefs about which correlations reflect causality. An agent predicts the consequence of available actions using a dataset and her subjective beliefs about causality represented by a directed…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-03-21 Andrew Ellis , Heidi Christina Thysen

This paper studies causal inference in randomized experiments under network interference. Commonly used models of interference posit that treatments assigned to alters beyond a certain network distance from the ego have no effect on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-04 Michael P. Leung

Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market, political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-11-29 Manuel Garcia-Herranz , Esteban Moro Egido , Manuel Cebrian , Nicholas A. Christakis , James H. Fowler

Finding the parameters of a latent variable causal model is central to causal inference and causal identification. In this article, we show that existing graphical structures that are used in causal inference are not stable under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-03 Mehrzad Saremi

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-08 Zhen Xu , Wen Dong , Sargur Srihari

Causal intervention is an essential tool in causal inference. It is axiomatized under the rules of do-calculus in the case of structure causal models. We provide simple axiomatizations for families of probability distributions to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-15 Kayvan Sadeghi , Terry Soo

In the past two decades, significant advances have been made in understanding the structural and functional properties of biological networks, via graph-theoretic analysis. In general, most graph-theoretic studies are conducted in the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-10-21 Michelle Rudolph-Lilith , Lyle E. Muller

Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Benjie Wang , Clare Lyle , Marta Kwiatkowska

Estimating influence on social media networks is an important practical and theoretical problem, especially because this new medium is widely exploited as a platform for disinformation and propaganda. This paper introduces a novel approach…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-09-06 Steven T. Smith , Edward K. Kao , Danelle C. Shah , Olga Simek , Donald B. Rubin

Online platforms regularly conduct randomized experiments to understand how changes to the platform causally affect various outcomes of interest. However, experimentation on online platforms has been criticized for having, among other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Smitha Milli , Luca Belli , Moritz Hardt

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal inference can help inferring properties of the 'unobserved joint distributions'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Dominik Janzing

We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-24 Filipe Barroso , Diogo Gomes , Gareth J. Baxter

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

Estimating total treatment effects in the presence of network interference typically requires knowledge of the underlying interaction structure. However, in many practical settings, network data is either unavailable, incomplete, or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Albert Tan , Sadegh Shirani , James Nordlund , Mohsen Bayati

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Ernest Fokoué

Dynamic models and statistical inference for the diffusion of information in social networks is an area which has witnessed remarkable progress in the last decade due to the proliferation of social networks. Modeling and inference of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-12-18 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Buddhika Nettasinghe

Understanding causal relationships among the variables of a system is paramount to explain and control its behavior. For many real-world systems, however, the true causal graph is not readily available and one must resort to predictions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Elias Eulig , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Patrick Blöbaum , Michaela Hardt , Dominik Janzing

The significance and influence of US Supreme Court majority opinions derive in large part from opinions' roles as precedents for future opinions. A growing body of literature seeks to understand what drives the use of opinions as precedents…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-19 Christian S. Schmid , Ted Hsuan Yun Chen , Bruce A. Desmarais

Dynamic networks models describe temporal interactions between social actors, and as such have been used to describe financial fraudulent transactions, dispersion of destructive invasive species across the globe, and the spread of fake…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-06 Melania Lembo , Ester Riccardi , Veronica Vinciotti , Ernst C. Wit