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Calibration is a fundamental property of a good predictive model: it requires that the model predicts correctly in proportion to its confidence. Modern neural networks, however, provide no strong guarantees on their calibration -- and can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-07 A. Michael Carrell , Neil Mallinar , James Lucas , Preetum Nakkiran

In the realm of stock prediction, machine learning models encounter considerable obstacles due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio and the nonstationary nature of financial markets. These challenges often result in spurious…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-28 Songci Xu , Qiangqiang Cheng , Chi-Guhn Lee

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are proposed without considering the agnostic distribution shifts between training and testing graphs, inducing the degeneration of the generalization ability of GNNs on Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) settings. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Shaohua Fan , Xiao Wang , Chuan Shi , Peng Cui , Bai Wang

We consider high-dimensional generalized linear models when the covariates are contaminated by measurement error. Estimates from errors-in-variables regression models are well-known to be biased in traditional low-dimensional settings if…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-06 Michael Byrd , Monnie McGee

Research on generalization bounds for deep networks seeks to give ways to predict test error using just the training dataset and the network parameters. While generalization bounds can give many insights about architecture design, training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Yi Zhang , Arushi Gupta , Nikunj Saunshi , Sanjeev Arora

Identifying effects of actions (treatments) on outcome variables from observational data and causal assumptions is a fundamental problem in causal inference. This identification is made difficult by the presence of confounders which can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-19 Ilya Shpitser , Tyler VanderWeele , James M. Robins

This paper investigates the use of regularization priors in the context of treatment effect estimation using observational data where the number of control variables is large relative to the number of observations. First, the phenomenon of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-30 P. Richard Hahn , Carlos M. Carvalho , Jingyu He , David Puelz

Control for confounders in observational studies was generally handled through stratification and standardization until the 1960s. Standardization typically reweights the stratum-specific rates so that exposure categories become comparable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-11 Niels Keiding , David Clayton

I argue that regularizing terms in standard regression methods not only help against overfitting finite data, but sometimes also yield better causal models in the infinite sample regime. I first consider a multi-dimensional variable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-01 Dominik Janzing

We review some recent work on removing hidden confounding and causal regularization from a unified viewpoint. We describe how simple and user-friendly techniques improve stability, replicability and distributional robustness in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-17 Peter Bühlmann , Domagoj Ćevid

Memorization in over-parameterized neural networks could severely hurt generalization in the presence of mislabeled examples. However, mislabeled examples are hard to avoid in extremely large datasets collected with weak supervision. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-10 Jiaming Song , Lunjia Hu , Michael Auli , Yann Dauphin , Tengyu Ma

This paper studies causal inference with observational data from a single large network. We consider a nonparametric model with interference in both potential outcomes and selection into treatment. Specifically, both stages may be the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Michael P. Leung , Pantelis Loupos

Discriminative learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) aims to perform image restoration by learning from training examples of noisy-clean image pairs. It has become the go-to methodology for tackling image restoration and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Junaid Malik , Serkan Kiranyaz , Moncef Gabbouj

Most approaches to out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization learn domain-invariant representations by discarding contextual bias. In this paper, we raise a critical question: Should bias be eliminated? If not, is there a general way to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Yan Li , Yunlong Deng , Zijian Li , Anpeng Wu , Zeyu Tang , Kun Zhang , Guangyi Chen

While deep learning models often achieve strong task performance, their successes are hampered by their inability to disentangle spurious correlations from causative factors, such as when they use protected attributes (e.g., race, gender,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Kurtis Evan David , Qiang Liu , Ruth Fong

Variational data assimilation in ocean models depends on the ability to model general correlation operators in the presence of coastlines. Grid-point filters based on diffusion operators are widely used for this purpose, but come with a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-12-11 Folke K Skrunes , Mayeul Destouches , Anthony Weaver , Guillaume Coulaud , Olivier Goux , Corentin Lapeyre

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) generalize tradition convolutional neural networks (CNNs) from low-dimensional regular graphs (e.g., image) to high dimensional irregular graphs (e.g., text documents on word embeddings). Due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Mehrnaz Najafi , Philip S. Yu

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

This paper proposes a straightforward and cost-effective approach to assess whether a deep neural network (DNN) relies on the primary concepts of training samples or simply learns discriminative, yet simple and irrelevant features that can…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Mohammad Mahdi Mehmanchi , Mahbod Nouri , Mohammad Sabokrou
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