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Related papers: Beliefs in Decision-Making Cascades

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Bias exists in how we pick leaders, who we perceive as being influential, and who we interact with, not only in society, but in organizational contexts. Drawing from leadership emergence and social influence theories, we investigate…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-04-06 Andria L. Smith , Simon Heuschkel , Ksenia Keplinger , Charley M. Wu

In social learning, a network of agents assigns probability scores (beliefs) to some hypotheses of interest, which rule the generation of local streaming data observed by each agent. Belief formation takes place by means of an iterative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Marco Carpentiero , Virginia Bordignon , Vincenzo Matta , Ali H. Sayed

We study the performance of different methods for processing information, incorporating narrative selection within an evolutionary model. All agents update their beliefs according to Bayes' Rule, but some strategically choose the narrative…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-08-06 Federico Innocenti , Roberto Rozzi

Snapshots of "best" (or "worst") experience are known to dominate human memory and may thus also have a significant effect on future behaviour. We consider here a model of repeated decision-making where, at every time step, an agent takes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-18 Evangelos Mitsokapas , Rosemary J. Harris

We study a dynamic model of Bayesian persuasion in sequential decision-making settings. An informed principal observes an external parameter of the world and advises an uninformed agent about actions to take over time. The agent takes…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Jiarui Gan , Rupak Majumdar , Goran Radanovic , Adish Singla

Social biases and belief-driven behaviors can significantly impact Large Language Models (LLMs) decisions on several tasks. As LLMs are increasingly used in multi-agent systems for societal simulations, their ability to model fundamental…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Angana Borah , Marwa Houalla , Rada Mihalcea

Undesired bias afflicts both human and algorithmic decision making, and may be especially prevalent when information processing trade-offs incentivize the use of heuristics. One primary example is \textit{statistical discrimination} --…

Meta-training agents with memory has been shown to culminate in Bayes-optimal agents, which casts Bayes-optimality as the implicit solution to a numerical optimization problem rather than an explicit modeling assumption. Bayes-optimal…

We design a double-or-quits game to compare the speed of learning one's specific ability with the speed of rising confidence as the task gets increasingly difficult. We find that people on average learn to be overconfident faster than they…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-07-11 Louis Lévy-Garboua , Muniza Askari , Marco Gazel

We show that in delegation problems, a principal benefits from belief misalignment vis-\`a-vis an agent when the latter can flexibly acquire costly information. The agent optimally succumbs to confirmatory learning, leading him to favor the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-30 Pavel Ilinov , Andrei Matveenko , Maxim Senkov , Egor Starkov

The human brain copes with sensory uncertainty in accordance with Bayes' rule. However, it is unknown how the brain makes predictions in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Here, we tested whether and how humans take parameter…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-01 Jannes Jegminat , Maya Jastrzebowska , Matt Pachai , Michael Herzog , Jean-Pascal Pfister

We present a model for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents who update their belief states by averaging (in a specified way) the belief states of other agents in the community. The agents in our model have a rich belief…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-05-15 Sylvia Wenmackers , Danny E. P. Vanpoucke , Igor Douven

Bounded rationality is an important consideration stemming from the fact that agents often have limits on their processing abilities, making the assumption of perfect rationality inapplicable to many real tasks. We propose an…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Benjamin Patrick Evans , Mikhail Prokopenko

Agents interacting with an incompletely known world need to be able to reason about the effects of their actions, and to gain further information about that world they need to use sensors of some sort. Unfortunately, both the effects of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Fahiem Bacchus , Joseph Y. Halpern , Hector J. Levesque

Situation calculus has been applied widely in artificial intelligence to model and reason about actions and changes in dynamic systems. Since actions carried out by agents will cause constant changes of the agents' beliefs, how to manage…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Jianbing Ma , Weiru Liu , Paul Miller

The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Jielong Yang , Wee Peng Tay

We analyze the problem of learning a single user's preferences in an active learning setting, sequentially and adaptively querying the user over a finite time horizon. Learning is conducted via choice-based queries, where the user selects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-27 Stephen N. Pallone , Peter I. Frazier , Shane G. Henderson

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

User preference learning is generally a hard problem. Individual preferences are typically unknown even to users themselves, while the space of choices is infinite. Here we study user preference learning from information-theoretic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Tanya Ignatenko , Kirill Kondrashov , Marco Cox , Bert de Vries

Possibility theory is proposed as an uncertainty representation framework for distributed learning in multi-agent systems and robot swarms. In particular, we investigate its application to the best-of-n problem where the aim is for a…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Jonathan Lawry , Michael Crosscombe , David Harvey