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This work is concerned with the limiting spectral distribution of rank-based dependency measures in high dimensions. We provide distribution-free results for multivariate empirical versions of Kendall's $\tau$ and Spearman's $\rho$ in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Nina Dörnemann , Michael Fleermann , Johannes Heiny

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-17 Anna Kiriliouk

The classical tail dependence coefficient (TDC) may fail to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence due to its restrictive focus on the diagonal of the underlying copula. To address this limitation, the framework of path-based…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-08 Takaaki Koike , Marius Hofert , Haruki Tsunekawa

In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-11 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Adrian O'Hagan

We propose the extension of Fr\'{e}chet-Hoeffding copula bounds for circular data. The copula is a powerful tool for describing the dependency of random variables. In two dimensions, the Fr\'{e}chet-Hoeffding upper (lower) bound indicates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-17 Hiroaki Ogata

One of the main goal of extreme value analysis is to estimate the probability of rare events given a sample from an unknown distribution. The upper tail behavior of this distribution is described by the extreme value index. We present a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Laurent Gardes , Stephane Girard

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-26 Chiara Lattanzi , Manuele Leonelli

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Remco van der Hofstad , Harsha Honnappa

Olkin [3] obtained a neat upper bound for the determinant of a correlation matrix. In this note, we present an extension and improvement of his result.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-13 Niushan Gao , Alexandra Kirillova , Zihao Tong

This paper introduces a new class of Cox models for dependent bivariate data. The impact of the covariate on the dependence of the variables is captured through the modification of their copula. Various classes of well known copulas are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-07-26 Mohamed Achibi , Michel Broniatowski

Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-06 Daniela Castro Camilo , Miguel de Carvalho , Jennifer Wadsworth

In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-11 Yaonan Jin , Yingkai Li , Yining Wang , Yuan Zhou

In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-12 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-12 Oliver Kley , Claudia Kluppelberg

We consider the upper and lower tail probabilities for the centered (by time$/24$) and scaled (according to KPZ time$^{1/3}$ scaling) one-point distribution of the Cole-Hopf solution of the KPZ equation when started with initial data drawn…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-04 Ivan Corwin , Promit Ghosal

A {\em maximal inequality} seeks to estimate $\mathbb{E}\max_i X_i$ in terms of properties of the $X_i$. When the latter are independent, the union bound (in its various guises) can yield tight upper bounds. If, however, the $X_i$ are…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-25 Aryeh Kontorovich

Regression analysis is one of the most popularly used statistical technique which only measures the direct effect of independent variables on dependent variable. Path analysis looks for both direct and indirect effects of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-26 Alam Ali , Ashok Kumar Pathak , Mohd Arshad , Ayyub Sheikhi

When particles interact via two-body short-range central potential wells, binding can occur for some critical values of the coupling constants. Using the envelope theory, upper bounds for critical coupling constants are computed for quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-06-13 Clara Tourbez , Claude Semay , Cyrille Chevalier

Despite the fact that copulas are commonly considered as analytically smooth/regular objects, derivatives of copulas have to be handled with care. Triggered by a recently published result characterizing multivariate copulas via…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Nicolas Dietrich , Wolfgang Trutschnig

We consider a general class of two-dimensional spin systems, with continuous but not necessarily smooth, possibly long-range, $O(N)$-symmetric interactions, for which we establish algebraically decaying upper bounds on spin-spin…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-22 Maxime Gagnebin , Yvan Velenik