Related papers: Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and perco…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
We consider the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a Euclidean network in one dimension in which nodes at a distance $l$ are connected with probability $P(l) \propto l^{-\delta}$ in addition to nearest neighbors. The…
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that,…
The Central Limit Theorem states that, in the limit of a large number of terms, an appropriately scaled sum of independent random variables yields another random variable whose probability distribution tends to a stable distribution. The…
In this paper, we prove functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for a stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and general infectious periods recently introduced in Forien, Pang and Pardoux (2020).The infectivity process (total…
The susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on complex networks can show metastability, resembling an endemic equilibrium. In a general setting, the metastable state may involve a large portion of the network, or it can be…
We derive an analytical expression for the critical infection rate r_c of the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) disease spreading model on random networks. To obtain r_c, we first calculate the probability of reinfection, pi, defined…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We extend a recent study of susceptible-infected-removed epidemic processes with long range infection (referred to as I in the following) from 1-dimensional lattices to lattices in two dimensions. As in I we use hashing to simulate very…
We propose a novel SIR epidemic model which is driven by the transmission of infection packets in networks. Specifically, infected nodes generate and deliver infection packets causing the spread of the epidemic, while recovered nodes block…
Consider a `dense' Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph model $G=G_{n,M}$ with $n$ vertices and $M$ edges, where we assume the edge density $M/\binom{n}{2}$ is bounded away from 0 and 1. Fix $k=k(n)$ with $k/n$ bounded away from 0 and~1, and let…
A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
We first generalise ideas discussed by Kiss et al. (2015) to prove a theorem for generating exact closures (here expressing joint probabilities in terms of their constituent marginal probabilities) for susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR)…
We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…