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Coordination of distributed energy resources is critical for electricity grid management. Although nodal pricing schemes can mitigate congestion and voltage deviations, the resulting prices are not necessarily equitable. In this work, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-15 Emmanuel Balogun , Sonia Martin , Anthony Degleris , Ram Rajagopal

While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-07 Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Bart De Schutter , Rafał Weron

Future electricity distribution grids will host a considerable share of the renewable energy sources needed for enforcing the energy transition. Demand side management mechanisms play a key role in the integration of such renewable energy…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-04-16 José Horta , Eitan Altman , Mathieu Caujolle , Daniel Kofman , David Menga

The energy market relies on forecasting capabilities of both demand and power generation that need to be kept in dynamic balance. Today, when it comes to renewable energy generation, such decisions are increasingly made in a liberalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Odin Foldvik Eikeland , Finn Dag Hovem , Tom Eirik Olsen , Matteo Chiesa , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Xuesong Wang , Sharaf K. Magableh , Oraib Dawaghreh , Caisheng Wang , Jiaxuan Gong , Zhongyang Zhao , Michael H. Liao

The energy transition is expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy sources whose production is intermittent in the electricity mix. Apart from key benefits, this development has the major drawback of generating a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-01-30 Thibaut Théate , Antonio Sutera , Damien Ernst

The smart grid vision entails advanced information technology and data analytics to enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and economics of the power grid infrastructure. Aligned to this end, modern statistical learning tools are leveraged…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-17 Vassilis Kekatos , Yu Zhang , Georgios B. Giannakis

In this study, we develop a theoretical model of strategic equilibrium bidding and price-setting behaviour by heterogeneous and boundedly rational electricity producers and a grid operator in a single electricity market under uncertain…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-04-27 Jobst Heitzig , Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns , Sabine Auer

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a major role for electricity companies as a fundamental entry for trading decisions or energy management operations. As electricity can not be stored, electricity prices are highly volatile which…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-27 Grégoire Dutot , Margaux Zaffran , Olivier Féron , Yannig Goude

We study a demand response problem from utility (also referred to as operator)'s perspective with realistic settings, in which the utility faces uncertainty and limited communication. Specifically, the utility does not know the cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-11 Pan Li , Hao Wang , Baosen Zhang

In electricity markets, retailers or brokers want to maximize profits by allocating tariff profiles to end consumers. One of the objectives of such demand response management is to incentivize the consumers to adjust their consumption so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-14 Jyoti Narwariya , Chetan Verma , Pankaj Malhotra , Lovekesh Vig , Easwara Subramanian , Sanjay Bhat

The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-20 Wei Li , Denis Mike Becker

This review presents the set of electricity price models proposed in the literature since the opening of power markets. We focus on price models applied to financial pricing and risk management. We classify these models according to their…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-30 Thomas Deschatre , Olivier Féron , Pierre Gruet

Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are forwards on the spread between an area price and the system price. Together with the system price forwards, these products are used to hedge the area price risk in the Nordic electricity market. The CfDs…

Applications · Statistics 2014-06-27 Egil Ferkingstad , Anders Løland

Forecasters using flexible neural networks (NN) in multi-horizon distributional regression setups often struggle to gain detailed insights into the underlying mechanisms that lead to the predicted feature-conditioned distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Alessandro Brusaferri , Danial Ramin , Andrea Ballarino

We present two machine learning frameworks for forecasting aggregated curves and optimizing storage in the EPEX SPOT day-ahead market. First, a fast parametric model forecasts hourly demand and supply curves in a low-dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Julian Gutierrez , Redouane Silvente

A distributed, hierarchical, market based approach is introduced to solve the economic dispatch problem. The approach requires only a minimal amount of information to be shared between a central market operator and the end-users. Price…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2020-09-07 Cornelis Jan van Leeuwen , Joost Stam , Arun Subramanian , Koen Kok

There is growing interest in the use of grid-level storage to smooth variations in supply that are likely to arise with increased use of wind and solar energy. Energy arbitrage, the process of buying, storing, and selling electricity to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-01 Daniel R. Jiang , Warren B. Powell

While deep learning gradually penetrates operational planning, its inherent prediction errors may significantly affect electricity prices. This letter examines how prediction errors propagate into electricity prices, revealing notable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Vladimir Dvorkin , Ferdinando Fioretto

This paper focuses on price-based residential demand response implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices during DR events. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Guido Cavraro , Andrey Bernstein , Emiliano Dall'Anese