Related papers: General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order B…
We introduce a novel large-scale deep learning model for Limit Order Book mid-price changes forecasting, and we name it `HLOB'. This architecture (i) exploits the information encoded by an Information Filtering Network, namely the…
Product cannibalisation in the marketplace refers to the decrease in the sales of one product due to competition from another product. We examine this phenomenon in a wholesale data set provided by an international company. We use a…
Through a reformulation of the local limit theorem and law of small numbers, which is obtained by working in the spaces naturally associated to the limiting distributions, we discover a general and abstract framework for the investigation…
Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…
The law of large numbers (LLN) and central limit theorem (CLT) are long and widely been known as two fundamental results in probability theory. Recently problems of model uncertainties in statistics, measures of risk and superhedging in…
In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…
We consider a population of $N$ interacting neurons, represented by a multivariate Hawkes process: the firing rate of each neuron depends on the history of the connected neurons. Contrary to the mean-field framework where the interaction…
We establish a central limit theorem (CLT) for families of products of $\epsilon$-independent random variables. We utilize graphon limits to encode the evolution of independence and characterize the limiting distribution. Our framework…
This work considers a many-server queueing system in which customers with i.i.d., generally distributed service times enter service in the order of arrival. The dynamics of the system is represented in terms of a process that describes the…
The paper constructs a multi-variate Hawkes process model of Bitcoin block arrivals and price jumps. Hawkes processes are selfexciting point processes that can capture the self- and cross-excitation effects of block mining and Bitcoin price…
This paper introduces the Generalized Fractional Compound Poisson Process (GFCPP), which claims to be a unified fractional version of the compound Poisson process (CPP) that encompasses existing variations as special cases. We derive its…
We introduce a scaling law for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) under fixed compute budgets that explicitly accounts for data composition. Conventional approaches measure training data solely by total tokens, yet the number of…
Using the regenerative scheme of Comets, Fern\'andez and Ferrari (2002), we establish a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for discrete time stochastic processes (chains) with summable memory decay. Furthermore, under stronger…
In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…
Dynamical systems with $\epsilon$ small random perturbations appear in both continuous mechanical motions and discrete stochastic chemical kinetics. The present work provides a detailed analysis of the central limit theorem (CLT), with a…
Under reasonable algebraic assumptions and under an infinite second order moment assumption, we show that the logarithm of the norm (log-norm) of a product of random i.i.d. matrices with entries in $\mathbb{R}$ or in any other local field…
Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…
We present a careful analysis of possible issues on the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data. We carefully analyze a set of effects leading to significant biases in the estimation of the…
We define a stochastic model of a two-sided limit order book in terms of its key quantities \textit{best bid [ask] price} and the \textit{standing buy [sell] volume density}. For a simple scaling of the discreteness parameters, that keeps…