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Decision theory does not traditionally include uncertainty over utility functions. We argue that the a person's utility value for a given outcome can be treated as we treat other domain attributes: as a random variable with a density…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Urszula Chajewska , Daphne Koller

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-25 Steven Stetzler , Michael Grosskopf , Earl Lawrence

Closed analytical formulas are derived for the differential and total cross sections of the non-relativistic photoelectric effect in the three main classes of few-electron atomic systems: (1) neutral atoms and positively charged atomic ions…

Atomic Physics · Physics 2022-09-28 Alexei M. Frolov

Locality of compact one-electron orbitals expanded strictly in terms of local subsets of basis functions can be exploited in density functional theory (DFT) to achieve linear growth of computation time with systems size, crucial in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-10-01 Yifei Shi , Jessica Karaguesian , Rustam Z. Khaliullin

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , J. Christine Chiu , C. Kevin Yang

Uncertainty propagation in nonlinear dynamic systems remains an outstanding problem in scientific computing and control. Numerous approaches have been developed, but are limited in their capability to tackle problems with more than a few…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-11-22 Tenavi Nakamura-Zimmerer , Daniele Venturi , Qi Gong , Wei Kang

Electron density is a fundamental quantity, which can in principle determine all ground state electronic properties of a given system. Although machine learning (ML) models for electron density based on either an atom-centered basis or a…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-10-08 Chaoqiang Feng , Yaolong Zhang , Bin Jiang

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Kernel Density Estimation is a very popular technique of approximating a density function from samples. The accuracy is generally well-understood and depends, roughly speaking, on the kernel decay and local smoothness of the true density.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Maciej Skorski

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

Orbital-free density functional theory (OF-DFT) holds the promise to compute ground state molecular properties at minimal cost. However, it has been held back by our inability to compute the kinetic energy as a functional of the electron…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-10-25 Roman Remme , Tobias Kaczun , Maximilian Scheurer , Andreas Dreuw , Fred A. Hamprecht

This paper presents new methodology for computationally efficient kernel density estimation. It is shown that a large class of kernels allows for exact evaluation of the density estimates using simple recursions. The same methodology can be…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-12 David P. Hofmeyr

Linear scaling density functional theory approaches to electronic structure are often based on the tendency of electrons to localize even in large atomic and molecular systems. However, in many cases of actual interest, for example in…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-03-25 Marcel David Fabian , Ben Shpiro , Roi Baer

Density-potential functional theory (DPFT) is an alternative formulation of orbital-free density functional theory that may be suitable for modeling the electronic structure of large systems. To date, DPFT has been applied mainly to quantum…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-04-21 Martin-Isbjörn Trappe , William C. Witt , Sergei Manzhos

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

In the recent work of S. Sharma \emph{et al.}, (arxiv.org: arxiv:0912.1118), a single-electron spectrum associated with the natural orbitals was defined as the derivative of the total energy with respect to the occupation numbers at half…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2012-03-07 E. N. Zarkadoula , S. Sharma , J. K. Dewhurst , E. K. U. Gross , N. N. Lathiotakis

Polymer self-consistent field theory techniques are used to derive quantum density functional theory without the use of the theorems of density functional theory. Instead, a free energy is obtained from a partition function that is…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-11-29 Russell B. Thompson

The excess free energy functional of classical density functional theory depends upon the type of fluid model, specifically on the choice of (pair) potential, is unknown in general, and is approximated reliably only in special cases. We…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-03-12 Stefanie M. Kampa , Florian Sammüller , Matthias Schmidt , Robert Evans

A introduction into density-functional theory and electronic structure methods is given, that aims at providing an intuitive understanding of the underlying concepts for the novice as well as an entry point towards the more advanced…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2011-08-20 Peter E. Blöchl