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We propose two new methods based/inspired by machine learning for tabular data and distance-free localization to enhance the covariance estimations in an ensemble data assimilation. The main goal is to enhance the data assimilation results…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Vinicius L. S. Silva , Gabriel S. Seabra , Alexandre A. Emerick

We develop an optimal experimental design framework for adapting the covariance inflation and localization in data assimilation problems. Covariance inflation and localization are ubiquitously employed to alleviate the effect of using…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-03-26 Ahmed Attia , Emil Constantinescu

The choice of the prior model can have a large impact on the ability to assimilate data. In standard applications of ensemble-based data assimilation, all realizations in the initial ensemble are generated from the same covariance matrix…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-03 Dean S. Oliver

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

In the strong-constraint formulation of the history-matching problem, we assume that all the model errors relate to a selection of uncertain model input parameters. One does not account for additional model errors that could result from,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-04 Geir Evensen

During the last few years discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods have received increased interest from the geophysical community. In these methods the solution in each grid cell is approximated as a linear combination of basis functions.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-19 Ivo Pasmans , Yumeng Chen , Alberto Carrassi , Chris K. R. T. Jones

Data assimilation (DA) is widely used to combine physical knowledge and observations. It is nowadays commonly used in geosciences to perform parametric calibration. In a context of climate change, old calibrations can not necessarily be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-23 Rem-Sophia Mouradi , Cédric Goeury , Olivier Thual , Fabrice Zaoui , Pablo Tassi

Artificial ensemble inflation is a common technique in ensemble data assimilation, whereby the ensemble covariance is periodically increased in order to prevent deviation of the ensemble from the observations and possible ensemble collapse.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-10-17 Thomas Bellsky , Lewis Mitchell

A non-intrusive data assimilation methodology is developed to improve the statistical predictions of large-eddy simulations (LES). The ensemble-variational (EnVar) approach aims to minimize a cost function that is defined as the discrepancy…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-09-28 Vincent Mons , Yifan Du , Tamer A. Zaki

Using a very cheap Data Assimilation (DA) method, I show an alternative approach to classical DA for numerical climate models which produce a large amount of "big data". The problematic features of state-of-the-art high resolution Regional…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-12 Bijan Fallah

Currently, the methods called Iterative Ensemble Smoothers, especially the method called Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA) can be considered state-of-the-art for history matching in petroleum reservoir simulation.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 M. A. Sampaio , P. H. Ranazzi , M. J. Blunt

State estimates from weak constraint 4D-Var data assimilation can vary significantly depending on the data and model error covariances. As a result, the accuracy of these estimates heavily depends on the correct specification of both model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Sandra R. Babyale , Jodi Mead , Donna Calhoun , Patricia O. Azike

Data assimilation combines forecasts from a numerical model with observations. Most of the current data assimilation algorithms consider the model and observation error terms as additive Gaussian noise, specified by their covariance…

Reservoir engineers use large-scale numerical models to predict the production performance in oil and gas fields. However, these models are constructed based on scarce and often inaccurate data, making their predictions highly uncertain. On…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-11 Mateus M. Lima , Alexandre A. Emerick , Carlos E. P. Ortiz

High-fidelity simulations are essential for predicting material behavior under high-velocity impact (HVI), but their accuracy depends on material models and parameters that are often calibrated by manual fitting to multiple costly…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-01 Rong Jin , Guangyao Wang , Xingsheng Sun

This work integrates ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) with the energy-aware hybrid modeling approach, applied to a three-layer quasi-geostrophic (QG) model of the Gulf Stream flow. Building on prior DA success in the QG channel regime,…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-09-03 Igor Shevchenko , Dan Crisan

Increasing the resolution of a model can improve the performance of a data assimilation system: first because model field are in better agreement with high resolution observations, then the corrections are better sustained and, with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-07 Sébastien Barthélémy , Julien Brajard , Laurent Bertino , François Counillon

Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in various research fields to reduce the uncertainty of the system-of-interest. However, the commonly-adopted ES method that employs the Kalman formula, that is, ES$_\text{(K)}$, does not perform…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Jiangjiang Zhang , Qiang Zheng , Laosheng Wu , Lingzao Zeng

Data assimilation will be essential for the management and expansion of geological carbon storage operations. In traditional data assimilation approaches a fixed set of geological hyperparameters, such as mean and standard deviation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Wenchao Teng , Louis J. Durlofsky

The idea of using machine learning (ML) methods to reconstruct the dynamics of a system is the topic of recent studies in the geosciences, in which the key output is a surrogate model meant to emulate the dynamical model. In order to treat…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-22 Alban Farchi , Patrick Laloyaux , Massimo Bonavita , Marc Bocquet
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