Related papers: Quantifying the uncertainty of variance partitioni…

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

Variational inference is a popular method for estimating model parameters and conditional distributions in hierarchical and mixed models, which arise frequently in many settings in the health, social, and biological sciences. Variational…

Statistical multispecies models of multiarea marine ecosystems use a variety of data sources to estimate parameters using composite or weighted likelihood functions with associated weighting issues and questions on how to obtain variance…

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but…

Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Computational molecular modeling and visualization has seen significant progress in recent years with sev- eral molecular modeling and visualization software systems in use today. Nevertheless the molecular biology community lacks…

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

Estimating prevalence, the fraction of a population with a certain medical condition, is fundamental to epidemiology. Traditional methods rely on classification of test samples taken at random from a population. Such approaches to…

In the context of industrially mass-manufactured products, quality management is based on physically inspecting a small sample from a large batch and reasoning about the batch's quality conformance. When complementing physical inspections…

Practical inference procedures for quantile regression models of panel data have been a pervasive concern in empirical work, and can be especially challenging when the panel is observed over many time periods and temporal dependence needs…

We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

Partition-wise models offer a flexible approach for modeling complex and multidimensional data that are capable of producing interpretable results. They are based on partitioning the observed data into regions, each of which is modeled with…

Existing regression models tend to fall short in both accuracy and uncertainty estimation when the label distribution is imbalanced. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic deep learning model, dubbed variational imbalanced regression…

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…

The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction…

In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on…

Virtual Diagnostic (VD) is a computational tool based on deep learning that can be used to predict a diagnostic output. VDs are especially useful in systems where measuring the output is invasive, limited, costly or runs the risk of…

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…